TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 5, 3:06 PM EST
Kalshi
Wes Moore appears on Fox News Sunday to discuss political and policy matters. The markets track whether he mentions specific terms and phrases during his official on-air remarks in the live broadcast.
Resolution is based on Wes Moore speaking in an official capacity during the live broadcast or stream of Fox News Sunday. The exact phrase or word must be used, including plural or possessive forms, though grammatical and tense inflections are not required. Only content from the original live broadcast counts; previously aired content, archival footage, recordings from separate events, and advertisements are excluded, though promotional content aired during the event is included. Video of the broadcast is the primary resolution source, with official transcripts used if consensus cannot be reached. If the event is cancelled or fails to qualify under these criteria, or if Moore does not speak in an official capacity (such as inaudible private conversations or unofficial hot mic statements), the market does not qualify. If postponed with announcement by the end of the following calendar day to a date within 14 calendar days, markets remain open.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-money incentives and continuous price discovery. While political analysts and media commentators may offer qualitative predictions about a public figure's likely talking points, this market aggregates the quantified beliefs of traders who face financial consequences for inaccuracy. The odds here reflect what informed participants are willing to stake, rather than editorial judgment, making them a distinct signal of expected outcomes independent of punditry.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts corresponding to each possible statement outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract's price represents the implied probability of that specific remark occurring during the Fox News Sunday segment. As traders place bids and offers, the market price adjusts in real time, allowing participants to enter or exit positions at the prevailing rate and enabling price discovery across all potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Jul 20, 2026, following the broadcast of the Fox News Sunday episode featuring Governor Moore. The outcome is determined by verifying which statements he actually makes during the interview against credible public reporting and video records of the segment. Once the episode airs and the relevant remarks are confirmed, the market settles according to which outcomes occurred, and traders' positions are finalized based on the verified results.
Market odds may shift based on breaking news involving Governor Moore, changes in political priorities, or emerging controversies that could influence his talking points. Announcements about the interview format, moderator identity, or confirmed topics for discussion could also reshape trader expectations. Additionally, recent statements or policy positions from Moore may prompt repricing as participants reassess the likelihood of specific remarks. Media speculation and polling data related to his political standing could further influence how traders position themselves ahead of the broadcast.