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What will Vlad Tenev say during NYT DealBook Summit?
🌟New
kalshi

What will Vlad Tenev say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 PM EST - Dec 2, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$1,397
Volume 24h:
$1,105N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$1,004
7%

Tokenized / Tokenization

 - Kalshi

Tokenized / Tokenization - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 2, 2026

What will Vlad Tenev say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026?

63%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 62¢ buys you 161 shares | Odds: 63% Total Payout: $161 | Net Profit: $61 Multiplier: 1.61x | ROI: 61% High Projected APY: 3,690% 48 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tokenized / Tokenization

Trade
63%
13%
Yes 62¢No 45¢
7¢
N/A
$174
43%
N/A
$169
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Active Trader / Active Trading

Trade
63%
Yes 50¢No 63¢
13¢
N/A
$12
0%
N/A
$12
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Trade
58%
17%
Yes 65¢No 41¢
6¢
N/A
$161
14%
N/A
$156
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Social

Trade
55%
Yes 57¢No 53¢
10¢
N/A
$45
0%
N/A
$45
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Bank / Banking

Trade
52%
Yes 55¢No 53¢
8¢
N/A
$34
0%
N/A
$34
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Agent / Agentic

Trade
51%
Yes 48¢No 57¢
5¢
N/A
$862
0%
N/A
$479
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Credit Card

Trade
48%
Yes 48¢No 63¢
11¢
N/A
$12
0%
N/A
$12
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Option

Trade
47%
Yes 47¢No 64¢
11¢
N/A
$22
0%
N/A
$22
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Retire / Retirement

Trade
47%
Yes 42¢No 69¢
11¢
N/A
$5
0%
N/A
$5
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Perp / Perpetual

Trade
45%
Yes 50¢No 58¢
8¢
N/A
$23
0%
N/A
$23
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Bitcoin

Trade
34%
Yes 33¢No 78¢
11¢
N/A
$42
0%
N/A
$42
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Event does not qualify

Trade
2%
Yes 8¢No 99¢
7¢
N/A
$5
0%
N/A
$5
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Prediction Market

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Gold (3+ times)

Trade
N/A
N/A
18¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Sport

Trade
N/A
N/A
11¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Kalshi

Trade
N/A
N/A
11¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 4d
active
Total markets: 17

Description

The event centers on tracking specific phrases that Vlad Tenev might mention during a scheduled summit, with resolution based on official recordings or transcripts. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or condition, and outcomes depend on whether these phrases are uttered during the live address.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether Vlad Tenev utters specified phrases during the 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit, using official video broadcasts, streams, or transcripts for verification. Each market defines a particular phrase (or set of phrases) that, if spoken by Tenev in an official capacity, triggers a 'Yes' resolution for that market. Phrases must appear exactly as specified, though plural or possessive forms and alternative terms connected by slashes (e.g., "Doge/Dogecoin") are acceptable. Grammatical variations, inaudible private conversations, and content from unrelated recordings do not count. If the summit is canceled or fails to meet payout criteria, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to 'Yes,' and all others resolve to 'No.' Postponements announced within one calendar day for rescheduling within 14 days keep markets open. Resolution relies first on video evidence; if inconclusive, official transcripts are used.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Vlad Tenev DealBook Summit market displays the current odds of various statements being made by Vlad Tenev during the NYT DealBook Summit. You can view the implied probabilities, track the total volume traded – currently at $1,397 – and see the 24-hour volume, which is $1,105. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, allowing you to analyze how the market has moved over time and identify potential trends in trader sentiment regarding what Tenev might say.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Vlad Tenev DealBook Summit. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments of potential topics, this market allows traders to express their beliefs about specific statements with quantifiable probabilities. This can reveal differences in expectations and potentially highlight areas where the market anticipates Tenev to address certain issues more or less prominently than experts predict. It's a real-time assessment of what traders believe is most likely to be discussed.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, shows the available contracts at different price points, giving an indication of the demand and supply for each potential outcome related to Tenev's statements.

This market resolves around Dec 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine whether each statement listed as a potential outcome was explicitly stated by Vlad Tenev during his appearance at the NYT DealBook Summit. Resolution will be based on a transcript or official recording of the event, ensuring an objective and verifiable determination of whether each statement was made. The outcome will be determined by the statements made during the summit itself.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Dec 2, 2026. Any pre-summit interviews or public statements made by Vlad Tenev himself would be a major catalyst, potentially shifting probabilities based on his expressed views. News coverage focusing on likely topics for the summit, or pressure on Tenev to address specific issues, could also move the market. Finally, broader market events or significant news related to Robinhood could indirectly impact trader sentiment and influence the odds in this market.