TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market on Polymarket tracks whether Donald Trump will verbally mention the term "CIA" during the week of May 25–31, 2026. The leading outcome, that Trump will say "CIA" this week, stands at 87.0%. Resolution will be determined by publicly accessible audio or video recordings of Trump's spoken words, excluding written statements and AI-generated content. Watch for Trump's public appearances and statements through May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as any verbal mention of the term during this window will trigger a "Yes" resolution.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations about Trump's statements this week, which differ fundamentally from traditional polling. Polls measure voter sentiment or public opinion on specific questions, whereas prediction markets price the likelihood of discrete events based on trader conviction and information flow. The market's current odds on the top outcome represent aggregated bets from participants actively monitoring Trump's communications, media coverage, and political developments. This real-time, incentive-driven pricing often diverges from static poll snapshots, making markets a complementary signal rather than a direct comparison point.
The What will Trump say this week market resolves on May 31, 2026. Resolution is determined by whether Trump makes the specified statement during the resolution window. Traders should monitor official statements, press conferences, social media, and news coverage throughout the week to assess the likelihood of the outcome occurring. The market remains active and tradeable until the resolution deadline, allowing participants to adjust positions as new information becomes available and the probability shifts.
Several catalysts could shift odds on this market. Scheduled Trump appearances—press conferences, rallies, or media interviews—create natural moments when he might use the targeted phrase. Breaking news related to uranium, nuclear policy, or geopolitical developments could prompt Trump to comment, increasing or decreasing the probability. Social media activity and recent statements offer clues about his communication priorities. Media coverage and analyst commentary may influence trader sentiment. Each public statement Trump makes this week will be parsed by the market, potentially moving odds significantly if it contains or avoids the specific language traders are pricing.