TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will Trump say this week? (June 29 - July 5)
polymarket
kalshi

Will Trump say a listed term between June 29 and July 5, 2026?

Volume:
$49,908

At least 3

 - Kalshi

At least 3 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 5, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,915
N/A
N/A
$1,897
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 1

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,975
N/A
N/A
$1,475
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,764
N/A
N/A
$1,425
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mount Rushmore

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,717
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Roof

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,185
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Truth

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Protect America / Save America

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Police

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 26.9¢
26.8¢
N/A
$2,413
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Patriot

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.2¢
N/A
$773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Goal

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.7¢
N/A
$538
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Communist / Communism

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$505
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Pass

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$279
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,811
N/A
N/A
$3,431
Settled
No
polymarket

Outside

View
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢
—
N/A
$4,801
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,625
N/A
N/A
$3,480
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,192
N/A
N/A
$2,566
Settled
No
polymarket

Maduro

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$3,088
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,737
N/A
N/A
$1,214
Settled
No
polymarket

Great Leader

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$2,383
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,124
N/A
N/A
$1,475
Settled
No
polymarket

Secret

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$1,410
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Female

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$1,009
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Six Seven

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$885
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Grass

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$875
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Beer

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$831
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Description

This event group combines two distinct market types: Polymarket's phrase-detection markets tracking specific verbal utterances by Trump during June 29 - July 5, 2026, and Kalshi's presidential action count markets measuring executive orders/actions during the same period. The group tests both Trump's rhetoric and administrative activity in a single week.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct measurement domains (spoken utterances vs. executive actions) operate on the same calendar week but use different data sources and resolution mechanics. No logical contradiction exists; markets are simply measuring different phenomena.Hero tip: Do not conflate Polymarket phrase markets with Kalshi action markets. Polymarket requires live speech capture; Kalshi requires official government registry verification at a specific timestamp. Monitor Trump's public schedule for live events (Polymarket) and whitehouse.gov for action publication (Kalshi). The 10:00 AM ET July 5 checkpoint for Kalshi is hard; actions published after that time do not count.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: 21 binary phrase-detection markets measuring spoken utterances only. Requires Trump to audibly say specific terms during June 29 - July 5, 2026 (12:00 AM ET to 11:59 PM ET). Written posts, Truth Social statements, and pre-recorded videos do not qualify. Source: Trump's live audio/video appearances.
  • Kalshi: 8 tiered presidential action markets measuring cumulative executive orders/actions. Resolution checks whitehouse.gov 'Presidential Actions' page at exactly 10:00 AM ET on July 5, 2026. Actions must be dated June 28 - July 4, 2026. Source: Official whitehouse.gov registry snapshot.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between June 29, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Kalshi

Resolution is determined solely by the publication dates visibly displayed on the "Presidential Actions" tab at whitehouse.gov, checked at 10:00 AM ET on July 5, 2026. The observation period runs from June 28, 2026 through July 4, 2026. Qualifying actions include proclamations, executive orders, nominations and appointments, and memoranda—any item listed on the page counts regardless of its legal effect. Resolution is based on the publication date displayed on the website, not the signing date or other dates. Actions must be published on the "Presidential Actions" page specifically; items appearing on other pages such as "Briefings & Statements" do not qualify. Backdated publication dates do not qualify if the action was not actually published during the observation period.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and polling measure different things. Polls capture stated voter preferences or public opinion at a snapshot in time, while this market reflects traders' financial bets on a specific factual outcome—what Trump will actually say. Market prices incorporate real-time information, incentivize accuracy through monetary reward, and adjust rapidly as new developments emerge. Traders often outperform polls on binary events because skin-in-the-game dynamics reward precision. However, both tools are useful: polls gauge sentiment, while prediction markets reveal where informed participants believe the probability truly lies.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances. Contract design varies—one may ask about a specific phrase while the other frames the question more broadly. Settlement rules, fee structures, and platform credibility also influence how traders value the same underlying event. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but temporary spreads persist due to fragmented liquidity and differing user bases across venues.

Several catalysts could shift odds significantly. Major news events—political developments, legal proceedings, or breaking stories—often prompt Trump to comment publicly, increasing the likelihood of specific statements. Scheduled appearances like rallies, press conferences, or interviews create natural windows for predicted remarks. Social media activity and prior week messaging patterns may signal his communication priorities. Market-moving surprises include unexpected policy announcements or controversies that demand response. Early statements during the week also provide real-time information, allowing traders to reassess probabilities as the seven-day window unfolds.