TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 27, 5:21 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Unlike traditional polling averages that measure public opinion, this market reflects trader expectations about Trump's statements based on current events, news cycles, and perceived political strategy. While polls capture voter preferences, this market zeroes in on the probability of Trump using particular words or phrases. The two can diverge significantly because market participants may have different information or incentives compared to polled voters.
This market resolves around Aug 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once Trump’s public statements from the specified period are verifiable from credible public reporting. Analysts will review transcripts and media coverage to determine whether the exact phrase was used, ensuring an objective resolution based on publicly available evidence rather than interpretation.
Key signals include Trump’s announced speaking engagements, real-time news coverage of his events, and any breaking political developments that might influence his rhetoric. Social media hints, press interviews, and speech drafts that leak can also shift trader expectations. Any indication that Trump plans to address specific topics or use certain language may cause rapid price adjustments on this market as participants react to new information.