TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will Trump say this week? (August 10 - August 16)
polymarket
kalshi

What will Trump say this week? (August 10 - August 16)

Volume:
$75,830

At least 3

 - Kalshi

At least 3 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 16, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,206
N/A
N/A
$4,902
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 4

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,885
N/A
N/A
$4,072
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 5

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,857
N/A
N/A
$5,072
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,257
N/A
N/A
$3,053
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lindsey / Graham

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,526
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 1

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,412
N/A
N/A
$2,230
Settled
Yes
polymarket

No No No

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Transgender

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,587
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Barack Hussein Obama

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,944
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mental Institution / Mental Institute

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
12.7¢
N/A
$1,049
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Six Seven

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$588
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

You Know What / You Know Who

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.4¢
N/A
$533
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kevin / Warsh

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9¢
N/A
$388
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Pearl Harbor

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$357
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 7

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,417
N/A
N/A
$4,279
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,506
N/A
N/A
$2,617
Settled
No
polymarket

Ballroom

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,724
N/A
N/A
$3,723
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,211
N/A
N/A
$1,929
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,132
N/A
N/A
$1,599
Settled
No
polymarket

Who Are You

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Abraham Accords

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$306
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Compost

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$292
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Big Trouble

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Justice

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

This event group tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific phrases or take a certain number of presidential actions during the week of August 10-16, 2026. The markets cover both spoken phrases and presidential action counts.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets share a clear, verifiable resolution path via public records — spoken words for phrase markets and White House.gov logs for action-count markets.Primary resolution logic: Publicly verifiable sources: Truth Social transcripts (for phrase markets) and whitehouse.gov "Presidential Actions" page (for action-count markets)

Core resolution logic:

  • Phrase markets resolve based on written/spoken usage within the exact date window; video posts outside the window do not count.
  • Action-count markets resolve by checking the number of listed actions on whitehouse.gov at a specified time post-window.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Video Timing: Videos posted during the window but filmed earlier do not count for phrase markets.
  • Action Counting: Only actions listed on whitehouse.gov by the specified check time count for Kalshi markets.
Timing: Resolution occurs after August 16, 2026, once all sources are finalized and verifiable.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the number of presidential actions taken by Donald Trump between August 9, 2026 and August 15, 2026, as published on the "Presidential Actions" page of whitehouse.gov by 10:00 AM ET on August 16, 2026. Presidential actions include proclamations, executive orders, nominations, appointments, and memoranda. The outcome for each market depends on whether the count of published actions meets or exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from 1 to 15 actions). Only items officially listed on the "Presidential Actions" tab at the specified resolution time count; actions emailed but not published, backdated entries, or items appearing in other sections like "Briefings & Statements" do not qualify. The markets collectively test predictions about the volume of formal presidential activity during the defined period.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Trump statement market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of specific statements from Trump during the defined period. It displays total volume of $75,830 and 24-hour volume of $3,374, letting users see consensus and divergence across platforms. This cross-platform view helps track market sentiment and spot shifts as the week develops.

Prediction market odds on this market reflect trader expectations about Trump's statements, which can differ from polling averages that measure public opinion. While polls capture voter sentiment or approval, this market zeroes in on the probability of particular phrases or actions occurring. Traders may price in news cycles, historical patterns, or emerging events that polls don’t immediately capture, often leading to divergent views.

News cycles, scheduled speeches, and unscheduled appearances by Trump can all shift this market. If media reports hint that he plans to address certain topics, odds may adjust quickly. Debates, political scandals, or even social media posts that signal upcoming commentary could also create volatility. Traders will monitor any event that raises the perceived chance of the exact wording or action defined in this market.