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What will Trump say this week?
kalshi

What will Trump say this week?

Volume:
$1,357,184

TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome

 - Kalshi

TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$209,919
N/A
N/A
$209,849
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Barack Hussein Obama

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$91,591
N/A
N/A
$88,990
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cuba / Cuban

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$71,412
N/A
N/A
$64,875
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Third Term

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$41,347
N/A
N/A
$37,974
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Obamacare

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$39,497
N/A
N/A
$34,371
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kamala

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$34,633
N/A
N/A
$32,945
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sleepy Joe

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,922
N/A
N/A
$25,902
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Autopen / Auto Pen

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,932
N/A
N/A
$23,288
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Transgender

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,970
N/A
N/A
$16,777
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Golf / Golfer / Golfing

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,186
N/A
N/A
$14,732
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ukraine

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,401
N/A
N/A
$10,396
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Blockade

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,932
N/A
N/A
$3,791
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Voter ID

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,463
N/A
N/A
$2,547
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Dividend / Stimulus

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,892
N/A
N/A
$3,884
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Canada / Canadian

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,539
N/A
N/A
$1,982
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Save America Act

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,827
N/A
N/A
$2,472
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Landslide

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,823
N/A
N/A
$2,150
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Socialist / Socialism

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,212
N/A
N/A
$2,037
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Zohran / Mamdani

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$123,973
N/A
N/A
$82,109
Settled
No
kalshi

Bibi / Netanyahu

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$123,102
N/A
N/A
$85,600
Settled
No
kalshi

Melania

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55,183
N/A
N/A
$38,620
Settled
No
kalshi

Stupid Question

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$52,493
N/A
N/A
$44,201
Settled
No
kalshi

Ceasefire

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,462
N/A
N/A
$39,887
Settled
No
kalshi

Rigged Election / Stolen Election

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,049
N/A
N/A
$32,938
Settled
No
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$39,417
N/A
N/A
$27,827
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 37

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will publicly state the phrase “TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome” before September 21, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives this outcome a 99.0% probability. The market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump states “TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome” – or a variation as defined in the resolution source – before the specified deadline, as determined by Kalshi. Keep a close watch on Trump’s public statements and social media activity leading up to September 21, 2026, as that is the date by which any qualifying statement must be made for the market to resolve to ‘Yes’.

Kalshi

The event resolves to Yes if Donald Trump uses any of the specified phrases — including singular, plural, or possessive forms — in verified public statements, direct quotes from source agencies, or posts on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social) before September 21, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Each phrase must appear exactly as listed, though plural or possessive variations are acceptable. Official government actions such as executive orders or signed legislation do not count toward resolution, nor do grammatical or tense variations of the phrases. The criteria apply uniformly across all phrases, with resolution contingent upon any single occurrence meeting these conditions.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump statements market tracks the current implied probabilities of various outcomes regarding statements made by Donald Trump this week. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $672,012. The total volume traded on this market is $1,357,184. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to anticipated public comments.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on polling data and qualitative assessments, this market represents the collective judgment of individuals who are putting their capital at risk. This can lead to divergences, particularly when anticipating unpredictable events like the specific content of a politician’s remarks. It’s common to see this market react more quickly to new information and potentially offer a more nuanced view than static analyst predictions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus view regarding the content of statements from Donald Trump this week.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a review of publicly available transcripts, video recordings, and official statements released by Donald Trump during the specified timeframe. The specific details of what constitutes a qualifying statement will be determined by Kalshi’s resolution process, ensuring a fair and transparent outcome based on verifiable information.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any breaking news related to Donald Trump’s schedule, planned speeches, or potential policy announcements would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected political developments, major economic data releases, or even significant social media activity could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any perceived shifts in Trump's messaging or tone, even outside of formal statements, could move this market as traders adjust their expectations.