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What will Trump say this week?
kalshi

What will Trump say this week?

Volume:
$3,116,557

Stupid Question

 - Kalshi

Stupid Question - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 3, 2026

Closed: Aug 3, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Stupid Question

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$433,025
N/A
N/A
$432,733
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Autopen / Auto Pen

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$380,184
N/A
N/A
$377,804
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cuba / Cuban

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$288,230
N/A
N/A
$284,822
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Who are you with / Where are you from

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$201,805
N/A
N/A
$117,240
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Socialist / Socialism

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$177,148
N/A
N/A
$177,050
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Windmill

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$101,783
N/A
N/A
$100,917
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sleepy Joe

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$68,907
N/A
N/A
$68,274
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Barack Hussein Obama

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$64,580
N/A
N/A
$64,197
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kamala

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$63,978
N/A
N/A
$63,546
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Transgender

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$42,722
N/A
N/A
$42,429
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ballroom

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35,336
N/A
N/A
$34,876
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Melania

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,926
N/A
N/A
$26,049
Settled
Yes
kalshi

TikTok

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,745
N/A
N/A
$22,392
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Rigged Election / Stolen Election

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,836
N/A
N/A
$21,757
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Landslide

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,646
N/A
N/A
$14,404
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ukraine

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,112
N/A
N/A
$14,089
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Bibi / Netanyahu

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,276
N/A
N/A
$13,097
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Zohran / Mamdani

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,306
N/A
N/A
$6,222
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fraud

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,390
N/A
N/A
$5,925
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Peace in the Middle East

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$300,323
N/A
N/A
$193,982
Settled
No
kalshi

Newscum

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$132,815
N/A
N/A
$96,200
Settled
No
kalshi

Uranium

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$126,783
N/A
N/A
$82,669
Settled
No
kalshi

TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$119,201
N/A
N/A
$80,191
Settled
No
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$105,890
N/A
N/A
$77,726
Settled
No
kalshi

Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$67,254
N/A
N/A
$43,627
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 32

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say the phrase "Stupid Question" in any public statement between July 27th, 2026 at 8:00am ET and August 3, 2026 at 12:00am ET on Kalshi, resolving based on verified appearances in speeches or social media posts. The current probability of Trump saying the phrase stands at 99.0%. The specific end date of August 3, 2026 at midnight ET marks the conclusion of the observation window for this event.

Kalshi

The event resolves if Donald Trump uses any specified keyword or its plural/possessive form in public statements between July 27th, 2026 at 8:00am ET and August 3rd, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Valid statements include direct quotes from speeches, social media posts on Trump’s personal accounts (Twitter/Truth Social), or statements published by recognized news agencies. Official government actions such as executive orders, signed bills, or similar documents do not qualify. The exact term must appear as stated, though grammatical variations like tense changes are permitted. For phrases presented with slashes (e.g., "Bibi/Netanyahu"), either component satisfies the requirement. All instances must occur after the market issuance date to be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the latest odds and price history for the Trump statement market, along with a real-time view of 24-hour volume of $1,403,584. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of a specific statement appearing within the defined timeframe, offering a visual representation of market sentiment and activity.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market currently shows a higher implied probability for the statement occurring, reflecting trader sentiment on Kalshi. While analysts may weigh broader political contexts and historical patterns, the market incorporates real-time betting activity and can react swiftly to emerging news or events that shift expectations.

This market resolves around Aug 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. If the exact phrasing appears attributed to the relevant figure within the timeframe, it settles accordingly; otherwise, it resolves as `No` based on publicly available records.