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What will Trump say this month?
kalshi

What will Trump say this month?

Volume:
$2,115,675

Fat shot / Ozempic

 - Kalshi

Fat shot / Ozempic - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 1:43 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fat shot / Ozempic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$302,772
N/A
N/A
$299,111
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Pelosi

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$176,617
N/A
N/A
$171,306
Settled
Yes
kalshi

American Dream

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$140,590
N/A
N/A
$131,111
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Palestine / Palestinian

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$99,450
N/A
N/A
$96,175
Settled
Yes
kalshi

DEI / Woke

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$72,281
N/A
N/A
$63,217
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Barack Hussein Obama

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$63,181
N/A
N/A
$47,512
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Space Force

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$31,733
N/A
N/A
$29,186
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Dead Country

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,042
N/A
N/A
$26,837
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Newscum

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,363
N/A
N/A
$26,112
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Gulf of America

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,111
N/A
N/A
$24,485
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cognitive

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,823
N/A
N/A
$25,646
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Moon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,874
N/A
N/A
$24,325
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Epstein

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16,533
N/A
N/A
$12,856
Settled
Yes
kalshi

TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16,074
N/A
N/A
$15,839
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Trump Derangement Syndrome

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,965
N/A
N/A
$14,779
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Golden Age

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,704
N/A
N/A
$13,331
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Greenland

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,742
N/A
N/A
$6,627
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Third Term

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,455
N/A
N/A
$7,865
Settled
Yes
kalshi

World Cup

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,430
N/A
N/A
$7,391
Settled
Yes
kalshi

UFC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,425
N/A
N/A
$7,336
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Knicks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,699
N/A
N/A
$7,384
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Genius

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,534
N/A
N/A
$6,365
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Predict / Prediction

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,086
N/A
N/A
$5,205
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Who are you with / Where are you from

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,887
N/A
N/A
$3,305
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$342,783
N/A
N/A
$267,818
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 33

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific phrases or topics during a defined window in mid-2026 on Kalshi. The leading outcome, that Trump will say "Crypto / Bitcoin" before July 1, 2026, currently stands at 1.0%. The second outcome, that Trump will say "Moscow" before July 1, 2026, is also at 1.0%. Resolution is determined by statements made by Donald Trump after June 1st at 8:00am ET through July 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, as verified by the resolution source. Watch for Trump's public remarks and statements as the betting window closes on July 1, 2026 at midnight ET.

Kalshi

The event resolves Yes if Donald Trump states any of the tracked phrases—including Greenland, Dead Country, Knicks, Barack Hussein Obama, Nine War/Ninth War, Newscum, Cognitive, Fat shot/Ozempic, Predict/Prediction, Autism, Pelosi, Genius, DEI/Woke, Moscow, Crypto/Bitcoin, Gulf of America, Epstein Island, Epstein, Make Iran Great Again, UFO/UAP, American Dream, Trump Derangement Syndrome, UFC, Third Term, Goat, Who are you with/Where are you from, Moon, Kimmel, Space Force, World Cup, Golden Age, Palestine/Palestinian, or TDS/Trump Derangement Syndrome—after June 1st at 8:00am ET and before July 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Statements must be made by President Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). Official acts do not count. Grammatical inflections for plurals and possessives are included, but other tense inflections, hyphenated compounds, and synonyms are excluded. For phrases with slashes, either word satisfies the criterion.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts or media commentary. Markets price in immediate information and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes, whereas analysts may rely on historical patterns or qualitative judgment. For Trump statement events, prediction markets typically respond quickly to breaking news and public statements, while analyst forecasts may lag or remain more conservative. Comparing the two approaches reveals how markets weigh probability differently than expert opinion.

On Kalshi, the What will Trump say this month event is priced as a binary or multi-outcome contract reflecting the probability that Trump makes a specific statement during the month. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price representing the implied probability of each outcome. As new information emerges—such as Trump's public appearances, social media activity, or news developments—the market price adjusts. Kalshi's order book displays bid-ask spreads and allows traders to enter limit or market orders based on their conviction.

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by whether Trump makes the specified statement during the designated period. Outcome determination depends on verified public records, official statements, or credible media documentation of Trump's words or actions. The exact resolution criteria are set at market creation and applied consistently. Once the end date passes, the market settles based on whether the event occurred, and traders receive payouts proportional to their position in the winning outcome.

Key catalysts include Trump's scheduled public appearances, press conferences, rallies, and social media posts. Major political developments—such as legislative votes, legal proceedings, or international incidents—often prompt Trump statements that move market odds. Media coverage and breaking news can shift trader expectations about the likelihood of specific remarks. Market participants also react to polling data, political momentum, and rival statements from other figures. Any unexpected event or announcement during the month could trigger rapid repricing as traders reassess the probability of Trump making the targeted statement.