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469,827

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What will Trump say in October?
kalshi

What will Trump say in October?

Oct 1, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$75,539
Volume 24h:
$19,586
306%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$60,666
32%

Autism

 - Kalshi

Autism - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Time left: 17d:12h:19m

Will Trump say "Autism" before Nov 1, 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 24% Illiquid market 17 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Autism

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$17,006
2%
31%
$16,565
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Cognitive

Trade
99%
58%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$7,634
1,247%
2,418%
$3,380
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Filibuster

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$3,606
1%
1,783%
$2,983
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Predict / Prediction

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$2,933
0%
1,055%
$2,763
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Greenland

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$2,523
2%
683%
$2,321
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Pelosi

Trade
75%
10%
Yes 68¢No 46¢
14¢
N/A
$446
18%
284%
$206
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Newscum

Trade
51%
23%
Yes 59¢No 46¢
5¢
N/A
$929
70%
287%
$615
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Fat shot / Ozempic

Trade
42%
10%
Yes 33¢No 78¢
11¢
N/A
$527
139%
407%
$425
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Antifa

Trade
36%
Yes 43¢No 63¢
6¢
N/A
$812
3%
78%
$471
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Golden Dome

Trade
22%
16%
Yes 29¢No 79¢
8¢
N/A
$4,401
2%
52%
$1,682
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Peace in the Middle East

Trade
19%
6%
Yes 26¢No 81¢
7¢
N/A
$1,562
4%
121%
$960
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Epstein

Trade
15%
3%
Yes 25¢No 84¢
9¢
N/A
$1,193
2%
30%
$976
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Peptide

Trade
14%
1%
Yes 14¢No 91¢
5¢
N/A
$1,463
3%
59%
$1,134
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

UFO / UAP

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 25¢No 91¢
16¢
N/A
$510
16%
30%
$377
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Make Iran Great Again

Trade
10%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
3¢
N/A
$3,111
0.89%
993%
$2,203
2w 3d 12h
active
kalshi

Third Term

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,198
N/A
N/A
$4,455
2w 3d 12h
Yes
kalshi

Ceasefire

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,671
N/A
N/A
$4,094
2w 3d 12h
Yes
kalshi

Aluminum

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,106
N/A
N/A
$3,490
2w 3d 12h
Yes
kalshi

Barack Hussein Obama

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,848
N/A
N/A
$2,846
2w 3d 12h
Yes
kalshi

UFC

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,463
N/A
N/A
$2,253
2w 3d 12h
Yes
kalshi

Zohran / Mamdani

View
100%
35%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,324
N/A
N/A
$1,794
2w 3d 12h
Yes
kalshi

Moon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,605
N/A
N/A
$1,125
2w 3d 12h
Yes
kalshi

Dividend / Stimulus

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,061
N/A
N/A
$967
2w 3d 12h
Yes
kalshi

Space Force

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$910
N/A
N/A
$904
2w 3d 12h
Yes
kalshi

Deal / Settle / Settled

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$910
N/A
N/A
$890
2w 3d 12h
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

This event tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific phrases in public statements between October 1 and November 1, 2026. The phrases range from political references to cultural and policy topics, and the outcome depends on verified public appearances, quotes, or social media posts.

Kalshi

The event consists of multiple individual markets, each defined by a specific phrase or term that Donald Trump must utter in public statements between October 1 and November 1, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if Trump uses the exact phrase, or any plural or possessive form of it, in direct quotes from public appearances, statements published by source agencies, or posts on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). Official acts such as executive orders or signed bills do not count, nor do grammatical or tense inflections of the phrases. Each market operates independently, with its own unique phrase, and all share the same time frame and validation criteria.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump October statements market tracks the current odds for various potential statements by Donald Trump. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $8,510. The total volume traded on this market is $75,539, providing insight into how much interest traders have in different possibilities regarding his public statements during October. This allows you to see which statements are considered most and least likely by the crowd.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on polling data and expert opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential insights. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when anticipating unpredictable events or statements. This market is a forward-looking indicator, attempting to capture the likelihood of events *before* they occur, which can differ significantly from retrospective analysis offered by many commentators.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price and probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price discovery process is driven entirely by supply and demand from participants actively forecasting the likelihood of different statements.

This market is scheduled to resolve around Nov 1, 2026. The outcome will be determined by a review of publicly available transcripts and recordings of statements made by Donald Trump during the month of October. Verification will be based on credible public reporting to confirm whether any of the statements listed in the market occurred. The process aims to provide a clear and objective assessment of what was said, ensuring a fair resolution to this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major political events, such as debates or significant policy announcements, could prompt Trump to address specific topics, shifting the probabilities of associated outcomes. Unexpected news cycles, controversies, or endorsements could also lead to changes in the market. Furthermore, any direct statements or hints from Trump himself regarding his planned focus for October would likely cause substantial movement. Finally, shifts in public opinion polls or analyst predictions regarding his likely messaging could influence trading activity in this market.