TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will verbally mention the phrase "Trump Derangement Syndrome" during the month of June 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that he will say it—stands at 97.0%. Resolution will be determined by any recorded and publicly accessible audio or video of Trump speaking the term or its plural or possessive forms between June 1 and June 30, 2026, with written statements excluded from consideration. Watch for Trump's public appearances, speeches, and media engagements throughout June 2026 to see if the phrase surfaces in his remarks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money traders' expectations about Trump's statements in June, which differ fundamentally from traditional polling. Polls measure voter sentiment or public opinion on fixed questions, whereas prediction markets price the likelihood of specific utterances or events. The market's pricing incorporates trader conviction, media coverage, and recent Trump statements, making it a forward-looking mechanism. Unlike polls, prediction markets reward accuracy with financial incentives, potentially creating sharper probability estimates for what Trump will actually say during the month.
The What will Trump say in June market resolves on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution depends on whether Trump makes the specified statement during the calendar month of June. Traders should monitor official statements, speeches, interviews, and public communications from Trump throughout the period. The exact resolution criteria and confirmation sources will be detailed in the market's terms at settlement time. Once June concludes, the outcome will be determined and positions will settle accordingly on Polymarket.
Several catalysts could shift odds for this market. Major political events, campaign announcements, or public appearances by Trump in May could increase or decrease the likelihood of specific statements in June. Media coverage and social commentary about Trump's recent language patterns may influence trader expectations. Scheduled speeches, rallies, or press conferences announced for June would likely move the market as traders adjust probabilities based on anticipated opportunities for Trump to make the statement. Broader political developments or controversies could also affect market sentiment about his communication patterns during the month.