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What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
kalshi

What will Trump say during RNC Convention?

Volume:
$1,435,548

Trillion

 - Kalshi

Trillion - Kalshi

1W

News

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Negative

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 11, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 12:08 PM EST

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
7d
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Result
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Trillion

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100%
66%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$47,931
N/A
N/A
$24,642
Settled
Yes
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Fraud

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100%
67%
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100¢
N/A
$42,665
N/A
N/A
$26,610
Settled
Yes
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Transgender

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100%
63%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$37,355
N/A
N/A
$18,689
Settled
Yes
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Democrat

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100%
17%
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100¢
N/A
$35,486
N/A
N/A
$18,670
Settled
Yes
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Oil / Gas / Gasoline

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50%
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100¢
N/A
$34,911
N/A
N/A
$17,007
Settled
Yes
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Fake News

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100%
37%
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100¢
N/A
$33,215
N/A
N/A
$17,850
Settled
Yes
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Communist / Communism

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100%
26%
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100¢
N/A
$28,609
N/A
N/A
$15,392
Settled
Yes
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Biden

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100%
49%
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100¢
N/A
$21,815
N/A
N/A
$12,834
Settled
Yes
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Radical Left

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100%
28%
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100¢
N/A
$21,154
N/A
N/A
$12,208
Settled
Yes
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Venezuela

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100%
75%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,124
N/A
N/A
$12,217
Settled
Yes
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Save America Act

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100%
59%
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100¢
N/A
$20,957
N/A
N/A
$10,922
Settled
Yes
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MAGA / Make America Great Again

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100%
25%
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100¢
N/A
$18,102
N/A
N/A
$10,883
Settled
Yes
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Stock Market

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100%
61%
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100¢
N/A
$17,249
N/A
N/A
$8,837
Settled
Yes
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Cheat / Cheated / Cheater

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100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,104
N/A
N/A
$7,027
Settled
Yes
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Healthcare

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100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,382
N/A
N/A
$8,094
Settled
Yes
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Crypto / Bitcoin

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0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$283,041
N/A
N/A
$241,541
Settled
No
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Ceasefire

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0%
3%
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100¢
N/A
$92,222
N/A
N/A
$81,264
Settled
No
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Afford / Affordable / Affordability

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0%
30%
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100¢
N/A
$81,979
N/A
N/A
$70,618
Settled
No
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Barack Hussein Obama

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0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65,523
N/A
N/A
$38,522
Settled
No
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AI / Artificial Intelligence

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0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55,338
N/A
N/A
$49,249
Settled
No
kalshi

Dumbocrat / Dumacrat

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,270
N/A
N/A
$33,615
Settled
No
kalshi

Hottest

View
0%
59%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$49,790
N/A
N/A
$26,105
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46,234
N/A
N/A
$37,481
Settled
No
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Rigged Election

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0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,595
N/A
N/A
$25,488
Settled
No
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America First

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0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30,805
N/A
N/A
$24,880
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 39

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say “Dumacrat” or “Dumbocrat” during his speech on Night 2 of the RNC Midterm Convention. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome. Resolution will be determined by whether Trump uses the specified terms during the convention, as verified by live broadcast or official transcripts. Traders should closely watch Trump’s remarks during the RNC Midterm Convention itself, with the market resolving based on what he says during the event window ending on September 25, 2026.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Donald Trump utters any of the specified phrases during his official RNC Midterm Convention speech. Resolution relies primarily on live broadcast video, with official transcripts used if video consensus cannot be reached. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases (including variations like plurals or possessives), and all require Trump to speak in an official capacity for validation. Phrases must appear verbatim or in an acceptable variant form; mere presence in background chatter, unaired segments, or unrelated recordings does not count. If the convention is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise unable to proceed normally, the “Event does not qualify” market resolves to Yes, nullifying all others. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Trump RNC speech market dashboard tracks the current odds and price history for this prediction market, along with a 24-hour volume of $829,266. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different statements from Donald Trump during the Republican National Convention, giving you a real-time view of market sentiment and activity for the Trump RNC speech market.

This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. After the Republican National Convention speeches conclude, the exact wording and themes from Donald Trump’s address will be compared against the market’s defined outcomes to determine which contract pays out.

Key events that could shift this market include new polling data showing changes in voter expectations, prominent endorsements or criticisms of potential rhetoric, major news coverage of campaign strategies, and any pre-convention speeches or interviews by Donald Trump that hint at his planned themes. Each of these can cause traders to reassess the likelihood of different statements, moving odds before the convention.