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What will Trump say during his working Lunch with G7 Leaders?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his working Lunch with G7 Leaders?

Volume:
$110,503

Event does not qualify

 - Kalshi

Event does not qualify - Kalshi

1W

News

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 10:11 AM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,840
N/A
N/A
$10,191
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Iran (3+ times)

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,140
N/A
N/A
$15,096
Settled
No
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,162
N/A
N/A
$10,236
Settled
No
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Hormuz

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,175
N/A
N/A
$6,405
Settled
No
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Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,809
N/A
N/A
$6,732
Settled
No
kalshi

Nuclear

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,285
N/A
N/A
$4,506
Settled
No
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Ukraine

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0%
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100¢
N/A
$5,066
N/A
N/A
$4,273
Settled
No
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World Cup

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0%
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100¢
N/A
$4,177
N/A
N/A
$3,141
Settled
No
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Biden

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0%
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100¢
N/A
$3,249
N/A
N/A
$3,023
Settled
No
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Russia / Russian

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0%
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100¢
N/A
$2,900
N/A
N/A
$2,589
Settled
No
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Zelenskyy

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,303
N/A
N/A
$2,170
Settled
No
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Immigrant / Immigration

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0%
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100¢
N/A
$2,271
N/A
N/A
$1,514
Settled
No
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Stock Market

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,234
N/A
N/A
$2,065
Settled
No
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China / Chinese

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,191
N/A
N/A
$2,021
Settled
No
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AI / Artificial Intelligence

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,092
N/A
N/A
$2,058
Settled
No
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Israel / Israeli

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,999
N/A
N/A
$1,662
Settled
No
kalshi

250

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0%
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100¢
N/A
$1,847
N/A
N/A
$1,667
Settled
No
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Putin

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,651
N/A
N/A
$1,479
Settled
No
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Tariff

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,438
N/A
N/A
$1,287
Settled
No
kalshi

Fake News

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,170
N/A
N/A
$944
Settled
No
kalshi

Democrat

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$998
N/A
N/A
$965
Settled
No
kalshi

Hottest

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$756
N/A
N/A
$675
Settled
No
kalshi

Rare Earth / Mineral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$664
N/A
N/A
$575
Settled
No
kalshi

Transgender

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$619
N/A
N/A
$532
Settled
No
kalshi

First Term

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$466
N/A
N/A
$435
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

During a working lunch with G7 leaders and Middle East representatives, these markets track whether Donald Trump mentions specific words or phrases while speaking in an official capacity. Resolution depends on live broadcast or stream footage, with transcripts used as backup if video consensus cannot be reached.

Kalshi

Resolution requires Donald Trump to speak in an official capacity during a press-open, live televised or streamed working lunch event. Each market resolves Yes if Trump uses the exact phrase or word specified (including plural or possessive forms), with grammatical/tense inflections otherwise excluded. Plural nouns within proper nouns and noun phrases are included. Resolution uses live broadcast or stream video as primary source; official transcripts serve as secondary source if video consensus cannot be established. Previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings from separate times, places, or events do not count. If the event is cancelled or fails to qualify, all phrase markets resolve No and the "Event does not qualify" market resolves Yes. If postponed with announcement by end of the following calendar day to a date within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. Trump must be present and speaking officially; inaudible private conversations or unofficial statements picked up on hot mic do not qualify.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Trump G7 lunch remarks market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movement for what the former president will say during his working lunch with G7 leaders. The dashboard displays current implied probabilities for each outcome, 24-hour trading volume, and a price history chart so traders can monitor how sentiment shifts as new information emerges. This market aggregates all trades on the platform into a single, transparent price discovery mechanism, letting you see exactly how the prediction community is positioning ahead of the event.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and continuous price discovery rather than static polling or expert opinion. Traders in this market are financially motivated to incorporate breaking news, geopolitical developments, and historical patterns about G7 summits and presidential rhetoric. While analysts may publish point estimates or qualitative assessments, the market odds update in real time as new signals arrive, sometimes leading or lagging consensus depending on information asymmetries among traders.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective belief of all active traders, with bids and asks converging toward an equilibrium that represents the implied probability. As new information surfaces—such as pre-summit statements or geopolitical events—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down until a new equilibrium is reached.

This market resolves around Jun 17, 2026, once the G7 lunch concludes and remarks become publicly available. The outcome is determined by what Trump actually says during the event, verified against credible public sources such as official transcripts, video recordings, or major news reports. Resolution hinges on whether specific statements or topics mentioned in the market's outcome definitions are confirmed to have occurred during the lunch.

Several catalysts could shift odds before resolution. Pre-summit statements from Trump or other G7 leaders about agenda priorities may signal what topics will dominate lunch conversation. Geopolitical crises, trade tensions, or economic data releases could change the likelihood of certain remarks. Media speculation and leaked briefing notes often move the market as traders update their priors. Finally, Trump's recent public statements and historical patterns from past G7 summits provide baseline signals that traders use to calibrate their positions.