TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 10, 10:28 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific phrases during his tele-rally with Michael Alfonso. On Kalshi, the current probability of the leading outcome stands at 99.0%, with resolution based on the official broadcast video and transcripts. The outcome will be determined by the end of the tele-rally on 2026-08-25, focusing specifically on the exact wording used during the event.
The event evaluates multiple markets based on whether Donald Trump utters specific exact phrases during an official tele-rally with Michael Alfonso. Each market corresponds to a distinct phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Crypto / Bitcoin", "AI / Artificial Intelligence", "China / Chinese"). The market resolves to Yes if Trump uses the exact phrase, or any plural/possessive form of it, during the live broadcast. Verification primarily uses video of the tele-rally, with official transcripts as a secondary source if video consensus cannot be reached. The entire content of the original broadcast is considered; additional content outside the call is excluded. The event only qualifies if Trump speaks in an official capacity—inaudible private conversations or unofficial statements do not count. If the event is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise fails to meet resolution criteria, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.