TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
What will Trump say during his Tele-Rally with Michael Alfonso?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his Tele-Rally with Michael Alfonso?

Volume:
$458,212

Transgender

 - Kalshi

Transgender - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 30, 2026

Closed: Jul 29, 8:07 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Transgender

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$28,661
N/A
N/A
$26,325
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Save America Act

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$28,315
N/A
N/A
$25,064
Settled
Yes
kalshi

America First

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,973
N/A
N/A
$20,791
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Communist / Communism

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,538
N/A
N/A
$23,211
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Endorse / Endorsement

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,928
N/A
N/A
$21,487
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Dumbocrat / Dumacrat

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,630
N/A
N/A
$19,293
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Iran / Iranian

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,451
N/A
N/A
$7,726
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,792
N/A
N/A
$48,634
Settled
No
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$43,258
N/A
N/A
$37,081
Settled
No
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,756
N/A
N/A
$36,100
Settled
No
kalshi

Democrat

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$33,286
N/A
N/A
$27,040
Settled
No
kalshi

MAGA / Make America Great Again

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,579
N/A
N/A
$23,302
Settled
No
kalshi

Biden

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,783
N/A
N/A
$18,325
Settled
No
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,710
N/A
N/A
$12,025
Settled
No
kalshi

Landslide

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,156
N/A
N/A
$9,115
Settled
No
kalshi

Tariff

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,031
N/A
N/A
$8,906
Settled
No
kalshi

Radical Left

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,598
N/A
N/A
$8,485
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,229
N/A
N/A
$7,092
Settled
No
kalshi

Hottest

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,869
N/A
N/A
$7,005
Settled
No
kalshi

Fake News

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,411
N/A
N/A
$6,016
Settled
No
kalshi

Stock Market

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,661
N/A
N/A
$5,522
Settled
No
kalshi

Fraud

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,597
N/A
N/A
$4,290
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific phrases during his tele-rally with Michael Alfonso. On Kalshi, the current probability for the leading outcome stands at 99%. The resolution source will depend on Trump's exact wording during the event. Watch for the tele-rally scheduled for August 13, 2026, as this is when the market will resolve based on his statements.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Donald Trump utters any of the specified phrases during an official tele-rally with Michael Alfonso. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the event; if inconclusive, official transcripts are used. The phrase must appear in its exact form, including plural or possessive variations, but grammatical tense variations are not considered. Only content from the live broadcast or stream during the official call qualifies—additional content or off-mic remarks do not count. If the event is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or Trump does not speak officially (e.g., only appears silently or speaks off-mic), the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, odds from this market suggest a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While experts weigh in with their interpretations of likely statements, traders on Kalshi are pricing in distinct possibilities based on recent polling trends and media coverage. The gap between these two sets of predictions can highlight areas where public betting diverges from institutional or media analysis, offering insight into crowd-sourced expectations for the tele-rally.

Media previews, polling updates, and any last-minute announcements from the campaign could shift this market. As the tele-rally approaches, leaks or interviews mentioning likely topics may cause rapid price changes. Additionally, broader political developments and real-time social media reactions during the event itself often drive significant movement in the odds on Kalshi.