TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 6, 7:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks specific phrases that Donald Trump might mention during a tele-rally with Megan Degenfelder. The outcome depends on whether any of the predefined phrases are spoken by Trump in an official capacity during the broadcast.
The event consists of multiple markets, each tied to a specific phrase or set of phrases that Donald Trump may say during a tele-rally with Megan Degenfelder. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' Trump must utter the exact phrase—or a plural/possessive form of it—during the live broadcast or stream of the event. The resolution primarily uses video footage of the tele-rally; if video review fails to produce a consensus among Kalshi employees, official transcripts will be consulted. Only content delivered within the original broadcast counts; any additional material outside this scope is disregarded. Crucially, Trump must be speaking in an official capacity for the market to qualify—inaudible private remarks or off-mic comments do not count. If the event is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise fails to meet qualification criteria, the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to 'Yes,' and all others resolve to 'No.' Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.
Compared to analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced interpretation of likely outcomes. Analysts may weigh broader political context and historical patterns, while traders react quickly to new information and betting dynamics. The gap between these views can highlight areas of consensus or divergence, helping followers spot potential shifts in public perception before official commentary emerges.
This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch the tele-rally closely for exact wording and context, as the market is designed to settle based on what is objectively said and reported afterward. The process ensures an impartial, fact-based determination of results.