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What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?

Volume:
$997,614

Melania

 - Kalshi

Melania - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 11:20 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Melania

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$45,647
N/A
N/A
$25,972
1w 1d 15h
Yes
kalshi

Peace

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,257
N/A
N/A
$17,416
1w 1d 15h
Yes
kalshi

Farm / Farmer / Farming

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,134
N/A
N/A
$18,878
1w 1d 15h
Yes
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$185,357
N/A
N/A
$167,116
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

China (5+ times)

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$84,737
N/A
N/A
$57,794
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Biden

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$56,115
N/A
N/A
$52,474
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Taiwan

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,792
N/A
N/A
$41,880
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Tariff

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,564
N/A
N/A
$42,207
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Deal

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,432
N/A
N/A
$42,380
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46,852
N/A
N/A
$27,694
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Economy / Economic

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42,918
N/A
N/A
$36,459
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Peace in the Middle East

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,107
N/A
N/A
$26,910
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Iran / Iranian

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,544
N/A
N/A
$24,782
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Billion / Trillion

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,080
N/A
N/A
$27,517
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,938
N/A
N/A
$25,382
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Soybean

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,010
N/A
N/A
$21,623
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Fake News

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,696
N/A
N/A
$21,020
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Manufacture / Manufacturing

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,599
N/A
N/A
$21,129
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Rare Earth

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,221
N/A
N/A
$20,492
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Stock Market

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,910
N/A
N/A
$16,553
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Invest / Invested / Investment

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,914
N/A
N/A
$14,848
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Nuclear

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,308
N/A
N/A
$10,462
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Boeing

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,094
N/A
N/A
$11,949
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

Russia / Russian

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,068
N/A
N/A
$12,802
1w 1d 15h
No
kalshi

North Korea

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,921
N/A
N/A
$11,032
1w 1d 15h
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention Melania during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival ceremony originally scheduled for September 24, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to that outcome. The market will resolve based on whether Trump utters “Melania” as part of his remarks, as determined by the resolution source. Traders should watch for any updates regarding the official schedule and content of Trump’s remarks, as the market is slated to close and resolve on October 8, 2026, following the state arrival ceremony.

Kalshi

The event evaluates numerous specific phrases that Donald Trump might utter during his remarks at Xi Jinping's state arrival ceremony scheduled for September 24, 2026. Each phrase—such as 'Taiwan,' 'Melania,' 'Deal,' or 'Russia'—has an associated market that resolves to Yes if Trump utters the exact phrase (or its plural/possessive form) in an official capacity during the ceremony. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcasts, with official transcripts used as a secondary source if video consensus cannot be reached. Markets resolve to No if the phrase is not uttered, while the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to Yes if the ceremony is canceled, fails to meet payout criteria, or any circumstance prevents normal resolution. Postponements within 14 calendar days keep markets open. Grammatical variations, inaudible private conversations, and content from separate events do not count toward resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump-Xi Jinping remarks market displays the current odds for various potential statements from Donald Trump during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival. You can view the implied probabilities of different outcomes, along with the total volume traded—currently $997,614—and the 24-hour volume, which is $900,280. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific market. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are pricing the likelihood of different scenarios.

Currently, it’s important to note that this market represents the collective prediction of traders on Kalshi. These predictions may differ from those of political analysts or traditional polls. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments, this market generates a quantitative forecast based on real money at stake. Discrepancies between prediction market odds and analyst forecasts can arise due to differing methodologies, access to information, or biases. It’s often insightful to compare the two, but remember that this market reflects what traders believe will happen, not necessarily what experts predict.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and the current volume is $997,614. Traders are essentially betting on their beliefs about what Trump will say.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript of Donald Trump’s remarks during Xi Jinping’s state arrival. The transcript will be reviewed to determine whether the statements outlined in the market’s possible outcomes were made. The market will settle to 100 for the outcome that best matches the verified transcript, and 0 for all other outcomes. Traders should monitor news sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Any pre-arrival statements from either Trump or Xi Jinping regarding the topics likely to be discussed could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events or breaking news related to US-China relations could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, leaks or reports about the planned content of Trump’s remarks could have a substantial impact. Finally, shifts in broader political narratives or public opinion surrounding the US-China relationship could also move this market as traders adjust their expectations.