TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 8, 11:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say “American Dream” during his remarks at Steel Across America. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to that outcome. The market resolves based on whether Trump utters the exact phrase during his official address, as verified by live broadcast or official transcripts. Keep an eye on the remarks themselves, scheduled for September 23, 2026, as that is when this market will resolve based on the content of his speech.
The event consists of multiple markets, each tied to a specific phrase Donald Trump may say during his Steel Across America remarks. A market resolves to 'Yes' if Trump utters the exact specified phrase—either in its base form, plural, or possessive—during his official address. Verification uses live broadcast video or, if needed, official transcripts. Grammatical variations or private off-mic comments do not count. If the event is canceled or fails to meet payout criteria, the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to 'Yes,' and all others to 'No.' Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Consensus among Kalshi employees ensures fair resolution.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the content of the upcoming remarks. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time assessments of potential statements. Discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies and information access. It’s important to note that analysts often focus on broader political strategies, while this market directly assesses the probability of specific phrases being uttered. Examining these differences can offer a more comprehensive understanding of expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of specific statements being made, and the prices reflect the collective assessment of market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract indicates the implied probability of that statement occurring; a higher price suggests a greater likelihood. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and responsive valuation of potential remarks.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, following the conclusion of Donald Trump's remarks at the Steel Across America event. The outcome will be determined by a review of transcripts and recordings of the speech, verified against credible public reporting. The market will settle based on whether each statement listed in the market was demonstrably uttered during the event. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective assessment of what was actually said, based on publicly available evidence.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 23, 2026. Any pre-released excerpts from the planned remarks, statements from Trump's campaign regarding the speech's focus, or breaking news events that might alter the context of the event could all shift trader sentiment. Major political developments or unexpected endorsements could also play a role. Furthermore, shifts in public opinion or media coverage surrounding key policy areas are likely to impact the perceived probability of certain statements being made during the address.