TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 11, 9:40 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific phrases during his Real America's Voice interview, resolving based on his exact wording. On Kalshi, the current probability that he will say "AI / Artificial Intelligence" is 68.0%, with the alternative outcome at 8.0%. The market will resolve according to the specific phrases spoken during the interview on August 26, 2026.
All markets share common resolution procedures centered on Donald Trump’s official statements during the Real America's Voice - America Speaks interview. Resolution relies primarily on video footage, with official transcripts serving as a backup if video analysis proves inconclusive. Markets resolve to Yes only if Trump utters the specified phrase (or its plural/possessive form) while speaking officially; background chatter, off-mic comments, or non-official appearances do not count. If the event is canceled or fails to meet qualification criteria, the "Event does not qualify" market wins, nullifying all others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets active. Each individual market’s outcome hinges solely on the presence of its designated keyword or phrase in Trump’s verified speech.
Currently, this market’s implied probability reflects trader expectations for specific mention categories during the interview. Those numbers can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, which often weigh broader context or polling trends. Watching the gap between this market and expert commentary may highlight where crowd intuition leans differently than institutional views, especially on high-stakes phrasing or tone cues.
This market resolves around Aug 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the interview transcript or authoritative media coverage is verified against credible public sources. The exact determination hinges on explicit mention categories defined in the contract, ensuring an objective match between event occurrence and market settlement.