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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina?

Volume:
$1,331,048

Transgender

 - Kalshi

Transgender - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 11:22 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Transgender

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$174,542
N/A
N/A
$164,961
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Save America Act

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$66,606
N/A
N/A
$63,022
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Estate Tax / Death Tax

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$31,620
N/A
N/A
$21,217
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Hottest

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$28,283
N/A
N/A
$17,981
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Stock Market

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20,941
N/A
N/A
$16,198
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Healthcare

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,599
N/A
N/A
$17,700
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Elon / Musk

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,622
N/A
N/A
$11,542
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,739
N/A
N/A
$11,962
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Dividend / Stimulus

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,155
N/A
N/A
$12,504
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Kamala

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,171
N/A
N/A
$9,137
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Nuclear (3+ times)

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,097
N/A
N/A
$9,710
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Veteran

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,564
N/A
N/A
$6,953
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Farm / Farmer

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,045
N/A
N/A
$6,938
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Small Business

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,402
N/A
N/A
$7,239
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Germany

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,496
N/A
N/A
$6,097
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Lumbee

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,912
N/A
N/A
$5,536
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Landslide

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,833
N/A
N/A
$4,868
1w 4d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$202,268
N/A
N/A
$151,437
1w 4d 19h
No
kalshi

Ceasefire

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$157,475
N/A
N/A
$128,639
1w 4d 19h
No
kalshi

America First

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$53,264
N/A
N/A
$49,819
1w 4d 19h
No
kalshi

Data Center

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,938
N/A
N/A
$37,828
1w 4d 19h
No
kalshi

Peace in the Middle East

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,854
N/A
N/A
$30,448
1w 4d 19h
No
kalshi

Deport / Deported / Deportation

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,574
N/A
N/A
$34,056
1w 4d 19h
No
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,365
N/A
N/A
$42,035
1w 4d 19h
No
kalshi

Russia / Ukraine

View
0%
82%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,004
N/A
N/A
$27,715
1w 4d 19h
No
Total markets: 25 of 42

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say “Transgender” during his Midterm Rally in Greenville, North Carolina originally scheduled for October 20, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome. The market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump utters the phrase “Transgender” as part of the rally, according to the resolution source. Keep an eye on the rally itself, as the market is scheduled to resolve around November 3, 2026, following the event window and potential recounts.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Donald Trump mentions any of 32 specified phrases during his midterm rally in Greenville, North Carolina. Each phrase or term—such as "Transgender," "Save America Act," or "Healthcare"—has its own market that resolves to Yes if Trump utters it in an official capacity during the rally. For certain phrases like "Iran (5+ times)," "Social Security (5+ times)," "Fraud (3+ times)," and "Nuclear (3+ times)," the market resolves to Yes only if the phrase is mentioned the required number of times. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcasts or streams of the rally; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Markets resolve to No if the rally is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise fails to qualify. The "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes if no qualifying phrases are mentioned or if the event is canceled or disqualified, overriding all other markets.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as political predictions often rely on polling data and qualitative assessments. However, prediction markets like this one aggregate the informed opinions of many individuals, potentially offering a different perspective than single-source analyses. This market reflects what a diverse group of people believe is likely to occur, based on their own research and insights. It's important to consider both types of information when forming your own expectations about the rally.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a comprehensive review of transcripts and recordings from the Trump North Carolina rally to determine whether each statement was actually made. The focus will be on direct quotations and clear references to the topics outlined in the market’s possible outcomes. The outcome will be determined by what is publicly stated during the rally itself, and not by any subsequent interpretations or analyses.