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What will Trump say during his rally in Michigan?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his rally in Michigan?

Oct 17, 2026, 12:45 PM EST - Nov 8, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$73,796
Volume 24h:
$15,767
15%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$56,880
27%

El-Sayed

 - Kalshi

El-Sayed - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 8, 2026

Time left: 16d:19h:20m

What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in St. Clair County, Michigan originally scheduled for October 25, 2026?

97%chance
Amount

$

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Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 54% 16 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

El-Sayed

Trade
97%
Yes 98¢No 3¢
1¢
N/A
$17,992
36%
N/A
$12,048
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Communist / Communism

Trade
96%
Yes 97¢No 4¢
1¢
N/A
$5,326
8%
N/A
$4,305
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Save America Act

Trade
95%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$474
25%
N/A
$474
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Dividend / Stimulus

Trade
94%
9%
Yes 95¢No 6¢
1¢
N/A
$497
231%
N/A
$497
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Stock Market

Trade
88%
Yes 95¢No 6¢
1¢
N/A
$596
0%
N/A
$581
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Trade
87%
Yes 91¢No 10¢
1¢
N/A
$544
0%
N/A
$539
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Hottest

Trade
87%
8%
Yes 87¢No 16¢
3¢
N/A
$491
5%
N/A
$472
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Ford / General Motors / GM

Trade
84%
4%
Yes 84¢No 20¢
4¢
N/A
$875
2%
N/A
$788
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Canada / Canadian

Trade
81%
Yes 85¢No 20¢
5¢
N/A
$107
29%
N/A
$88
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Barack Hussein Obama

Trade
78%
3%
Yes 81¢No 23¢
4¢
N/A
$2,341
0.64%
N/A
$1,785
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Sleepy Joe

Trade
78%
Yes 83¢No 20¢
3¢
N/A
$227
70%
N/A
$205
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Made in America / American Made

Trade
74%
11%
Yes 72¢No 38¢
10¢
N/A
$3,758
43%
N/A
$2,361
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Kamala

Trade
74%
Yes 71¢No 37¢
8¢
N/A
$37
0%
N/A
$31
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Nuclear (3+ times)

Trade
73%
10%
Yes 81¢No 25¢
6¢
N/A
$341
29%
N/A
$204
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Auto Worker / Autoworker

Trade
71%
4%
Yes 71¢No 30¢
1¢
N/A
$352
40%
N/A
$330
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Supreme Court

Trade
66%
6%
Yes 65¢No 40¢
5¢
N/A
$1,578
6%
N/A
$1,067
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Iran (5+ times)

Trade
64%
15%
Yes 64¢No 38¢
2¢
N/A
$1,968
127%
N/A
$1,376
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Israel / Israeli

Trade
63%
6%
Yes 59¢No 46¢
5¢
N/A
$651
50%
N/A
$503
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Hormuz

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 47¢No 59¢
6¢
N/A
$367
765%
N/A
$349
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Gulf of America

Trade
41%
3%
Yes 38¢No 65¢
3¢
N/A
$817
11%
N/A
$317
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Blockade

Trade
38%
9%
Yes 39¢No 67¢
6¢
N/A
$328
4%
N/A
$78
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Drill Baby Drill

Trade
32%
9%
Yes 29¢No 77¢
6¢
N/A
$97
13%
N/A
$85
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Trade
26%
10%
Yes 26¢No 76¢
2¢
N/A
$2,205
20%
N/A
$1,756
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Fentanyl

Trade
26%
6%
Yes 24¢No 83¢
7¢
N/A
$175
335%
N/A
$169
2w 2d 19h
active
kalshi

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Trade
24%
2%
Yes 23¢No 79¢
2¢
N/A
$1,442
3%
N/A
$794
2w 2d 19h
active
Total markets: 25 of 32

Description

This event tracks specific phrases that Donald Trump might mention during a political rally, focusing on topics ranging from domestic policy to international relations. The outcome depends solely on whether he utters any of the predefined expressions during the scheduled address.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Donald Trump mentions any of 31 specified phrases during his midterm rally in St. Clair County, Michigan, scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each phrase constitutes a separate market that resolves to Yes if Trump utters it in an official capacity during the rally. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcasts or streams of the event; if video consensus cannot be reached, official internal and external transcripts are used. Markets will resolve to No if the rally is definitively canceled, fails to meet payout criteria, or any circumstance prevents normal resolution—except for postponements announced within one calendar day and rescheduled within 14 days, which keep markets open. Specific payout criteria require exact phrase matches, including plural or possessive forms where applicable, and exclude inaudible private conversations, unofficial statements, previously aired content, archival footage, or recordings from unrelated times, places, or events. Grammatical or tense variations do not count unless explicitly stated otherwise.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump Michigan rally market tracks the current odds for various statements Donald Trump might make during his rally. You can see the implied probability of each outcome, as well as the total volume traded – currently $73,796 – and the 24-hour trading volume of $14,733. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see which predictions are gaining or losing traction as the event approaches. The top outcome currently has a chance of 97.0% according to traders on Kalshi.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are often qualitative and lack the precision of a prediction market. However, comparing the implied probabilities from this market to polling data and expert opinions regarding Trump's likely messaging could reveal areas of agreement or disagreement. If analysts widely expect Trump to focus on specific economic issues, for example, we might see higher probabilities assigned to related statements within this market. This provides a unique, quantifiable perspective on expectations surrounding the rally.

This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Donald Trump’s remarks during the Michigan rally. The market will determine which of the listed statements were actually made by Trump during the event. The outcome will be determined by the presence or absence of specific phrases, as defined by the market’s parameters, and verified against credible public sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any breaking news related to Donald Trump, his campaign, or the issues he's likely to address in Michigan could influence trading activity. Major policy announcements, shifts in polling data, or even unexpected endorsements could all impact the perceived probabilities of different statements. Furthermore, any pre-rally statements or hints from Trump himself about his planned remarks would likely cause significant movement in this market. Increased media coverage focusing on potential rally themes could also drive volume and price changes.