TOTAL VOLUME:

$146.6b

24H VOL:

$161,047,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,781,800,361

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,744,915,607

504,917

Markets across

37,612

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,946

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas?

Volume:
$1,405,881

Transgender

 - Kalshi

Transgender - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 10:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Transgender

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$154,228
N/A
N/A
$121,573
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Save America Act

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$72,372
N/A
N/A
$62,345
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Water

View
100%
66%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$60,263
N/A
N/A
$40,461
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Cattle

View
100%
79%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$48,991
N/A
N/A
$24,051
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Social Security (5+ times)

View
100%
76%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$33,485
N/A
N/A
$20,002
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Dividend / Stimulus

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$32,276
N/A
N/A
$29,184
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Aircraft / Aviation

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$31,685
N/A
N/A
$21,207
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Healthcare

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30,539
N/A
N/A
$27,449
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Farm / Farmer

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27,232
N/A
N/A
$23,925
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Estate Tax / Death Tax

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,651
N/A
N/A
$18,693
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Small Business

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,601
N/A
N/A
$16,702
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Kamala

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,157
N/A
N/A
$14,927
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

NATO

View
100%
84%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,006
N/A
N/A
$11,608
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Diesel

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,926
N/A
N/A
$7,605
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Boeing

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,050
N/A
N/A
$5,827
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Power Plant

View
100%
73%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,183
N/A
N/A
$2,710
1w 3d 19h
Yes
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$162,475
N/A
N/A
$149,031
1w 3d 19h
No
kalshi

Ceasefire

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$119,333
N/A
N/A
$103,412
1w 3d 19h
No
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$103,012
N/A
N/A
$93,417
1w 3d 19h
No
kalshi

Iran (5+ times)

View
0%
66%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,810
N/A
N/A
$54,442
1w 3d 19h
No
kalshi

Deport / Deported / Deportation

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,704
N/A
N/A
$33,576
1w 3d 19h
No
kalshi

America First

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,361
N/A
N/A
$43,087
1w 3d 19h
No
kalshi

Fraud (3+ times)

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,435
N/A
N/A
$31,602
1w 3d 19h
No
kalshi

Veteran

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,808
N/A
N/A
$21,703
1w 3d 19h
No
kalshi

Russia / Ukraine

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,019
N/A
N/A
$17,989
1w 3d 19h
No
Total markets: 25 of 35

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say the word “Fraud” at least three times during his Midterm Rally in Wichita, Kansas originally scheduled for October 19, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 100.0% probability to this outcome, and a 100.0% probability to the opposing outcome. Resolution will be determined by whether Trump utters the phrase “Fraud” three or more times during the rally, as assessed by the resolution source. Traders should closely watch for any changes to the rally schedule, as the market resolves based on the event as it actually occurs, with a current resolution date estimate of November 2, 2026.

Kalshi

The event evaluates numerous specific phrases that Donald Trump might utter during his midterm rally in Wichita, Kansas. Each phrase represents a distinct market that resolves to Yes if Trump utters the exact phrase—or its plural/possessive form—during the official rally. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcasts or official transcripts if video consensus cannot be reached. Markets will resolve to No if the rally is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or if no qualifying phrase is spoken. If the event is postponed within 14 days, markets remain open. The "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes only if the rally fails to occur or no qualifying phrases are spoken, overriding all other markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump Kansas rally market tracks the current odds of various statements being made by Donald Trump during his rally. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. The 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,205,473, is also displayed, indicating recent market activity. Total volume for this market is $1,405,715, reflecting overall interest in predicting the content of this event. This provides a real-time view of what traders believe is most likely to be said.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are often qualitative and lack the precision of a quantified prediction market. However, the collective wisdom of traders in this market can offer a different perspective than individual expert opinions. If analysts are predicting certain themes will be prominent in the speech, this market will show whether traders agree and are willing to put capital behind that expectation. Discrepancies between market odds and analyst predictions can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements from Donald Trump, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined solely by supply and demand within the Kalshi market; there are no external factors influencing the pricing mechanism. This creates a dynamic and responsive system for forecasting the rally’s content.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Donald Trump’s remarks during the Kansas rally. The outcome will be determined by whether each statement listed in the market was demonstrably uttered by Donald Trump during the event. The market will settle based on this objective verification, ensuring a transparent and impartial resolution process.

Several signals could significantly move this market. Any breaking news related to Donald Trump, such as policy announcements or controversies, could shift expectations about the rally’s content. Major political events or shifts in public opinion could also influence traders’ beliefs. Furthermore, statements made by Trump or his campaign team leading up to the rally could provide clues about his intended messaging, impacting the odds in this market. Finally, any changes to the rally’s schedule or location could introduce uncertainty and volatility.