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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa?

Oct 17, 2026, 12:40 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$375,048
Volume 24h:
$315,914
1,347%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$313,028
460%

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1W

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 13d:19h:20m

What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Sioux City, Iowa originally scheduled for October 22, 2026?

98%chance
Amount

$

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 30% 13 days to resolution
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7d
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Transgender

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98%
1%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$44,630
1,059%
N/A
$38,694
1w 6d 19h
active
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Save America Act

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1¢
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$16,240
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1¢
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$11,376
541%
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$9,160
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$6,264
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Estate Tax / Death Tax

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$7,233
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4%
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3¢
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$21,379
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Hottest

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91%
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1¢
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$3,637
289%
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$2,986
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Steel

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Barack Hussein Obama

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Made in America / American Made

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Kamala

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Google

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Gulf of America

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Corn

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Hormuz

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Drill Baby Drill

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$7,894
3,055%
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$6,825
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Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

This event tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific topics or phrases during a scheduled rally. The resolution depends on the exact wording used during the official address, with clear criteria for what constitutes a qualifying mention.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Donald Trump utters any of 32 specified phrases or words (including variations like plural forms or alternative terms connected by slashes) during his midterm rally in Sioux City, Iowa. Each phrase has identical resolution procedures: verification uses live broadcast video or official transcripts, requiring exact matches in official capacity statements. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic remarks do not count. If the rally is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, voiding others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. All markets share these uniform resolution standards and cancellation/postponement rules.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might focus on strategic messaging or policy implications, this market directly gauges what people believe Donald Trump will actually *say*. This can lead to divergence, as prediction markets are driven by a diverse group of traders incentivized to accurately forecast the event, rather than a smaller group of expert opinions. It’s a fascinating comparison to see how collective forecasting differs from individual expert analysis regarding the Iowa rally.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements from Donald Trump, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. Higher demand for a particular outcome drives up its price, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements reflect the aggregated beliefs of all participants, creating a real-time forecast of what will be said at the Iowa rally. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of the most likely statements.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of transcripts and video recordings of the rally, focusing on whether Donald Trump made the statements outlined in the market’s possible outcomes. The resolution process aims to objectively determine which statements were actually uttered during the Iowa rally, providing a clear and verifiable result for all participants in this market.

Several signals could significantly move this market. Any pre-rally statements or hints from Donald Trump himself regarding his planned remarks would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major news events or political developments leading up to the rally could also influence expectations about his messaging. Furthermore, changes in public sentiment or polling data related to the issues he’s likely to address could impact trading activity. Unexpected endorsements or controversies could also be catalysts, making this market particularly sensitive to the evolving political landscape.