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What will Trump say during his rally in Florida?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida?

Oct 17, 2026, 12:40 PM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$90,002
Volume 24h:
$41,975
306%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$75,308
95%

Transgender

 - Kalshi

Transgender - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 14d:19h:20m

What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Fort Myers, Florida originally scheduled for October 23, 2026?

98%chance
Amount

$

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 63% 14 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Transgender

Trade
98%
Yes 98¢No 3¢
1¢
N/A
$4,646
37%
N/A
$3,917
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Dividend / Stimulus

Trade
95%
3%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$2,227
281%
N/A
$2,097
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Save America Act

Trade
95%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$5,810
3%
N/A
$5,353
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Stock Market

Trade
92%
1%
Yes 93¢No 8¢
1¢
N/A
$879
3%
N/A
$613
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Trade
91%
5%
Yes 90¢No 14¢
4¢
N/A
$183
15%
N/A
$165
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Hottest

Trade
91%
5%
Yes 90¢No 12¢
2¢
N/A
$1,483
11%
N/A
$1,213
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Sleepy Joe

Trade
89%
Yes 90¢No 11¢
1¢
N/A
$2,937
14%
N/A
$938
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Insurance

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89%
2%
Yes 90¢No 11¢
1¢
N/A
$1,006
7%
N/A
$963
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Gulf of America

Trade
83%
1%
Yes 82¢No 19¢
1¢
N/A
$1,157
44%
N/A
$1,067
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Nuclear (3+ times)

Trade
75%
6%
Yes 78¢No 24¢
2¢
N/A
$617
380%
N/A
$454
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Russia / Ukraine

Trade
73%
9%
Yes 66¢No 37¢
3¢
N/A
$3,239
10%
N/A
$1,853
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Barack Hussein Obama

Trade
73%
11%
Yes 73¢No 29¢
2¢
N/A
$1,882
16%
N/A
$1,645
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Supreme Court

Trade
70%
9%
Yes 70¢No 33¢
3¢
N/A
$476
336%
N/A
$429
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Hurricane

Trade
53%
2%
Yes 54¢No 47¢
1¢
N/A
$1,477
88%
N/A
$1,324
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Israel / Israeli

Trade
51%
2%
Yes 48¢No 60¢
8¢
N/A
$1,608
146%
N/A
$1,451
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Made in America / American Made

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50%
5%
Yes 49¢No 55¢
4¢
N/A
$3,390
58%
N/A
$2,305
2w 19h
active
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

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44%
6%
Yes 43¢No 61¢
4¢
N/A
$1,351
165%
N/A
$1,178
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Blockade

Trade
44%
3%
Yes 41¢No 69¢
10¢
N/A
$477
12%
N/A
$449
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Drill Baby Drill

Trade
42%
1%
Yes 41¢No 68¢
9¢
N/A
$2,131
367%
N/A
$1,886
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Hormuz

Trade
36%
1%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
1¢
N/A
$2,168
6%
N/A
$1,690
2w 19h
active
kalshi

America First

Trade
33%
Yes 26¢No 78¢
4¢
N/A
$2,947
162%
N/A
$2,567
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Trade
30%
1%
Yes 29¢No 75¢
4¢
N/A
$3,006
11%
N/A
$1,636
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Data Center

Trade
28%
1%
Yes 31¢No 71¢
2¢
N/A
$2,747
181%
N/A
$2,268
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Fentanyl

Trade
22%
3%
Yes 21¢No 83¢
4¢
N/A
$419
28%
N/A
$368
2w 19h
active
kalshi

Fraud (3+ times)

Trade
17%
9%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
N/A
$1,847
46%
N/A
$1,323
2w 19h
active
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific topics or phrases during a scheduled campaign rally. The rally serves as a platform where political discourse, policy positions, and responses to current events are typically highlighted. The outcome hinges on Trump's verbal emphasis during the speech.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Donald Trump utters any of 30 specified phrases or terms during his midterm rally in Fort Myers, Florida, scheduled for October 23, 2026. Each phrase or term—such as 'Transgender,' 'Cheat,' 'Save America Act,' and others—has its own market that resolves to 'Yes' if Trump mentions it exactly, or in a plural/possessive form, during the official rally. Resolution relies primarily on live broadcast or stream video; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Markets resolve to 'No' if the rally is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or if none of the specified phrases are mentioned. The 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to 'Yes' under these conditions, overriding all others. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump Florida rally market tracks the probabilities of various statements being made by Donald Trump during his rally. You’ll find the current odds for each outcome, a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $40,610. The total volume traded on this market is $90,002, indicating the level of interest from forecasters. This allows users to see where the crowd believes the most likely outcomes lie and how sentiment is shifting.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are often qualitative and lack the precision of a quantified prediction market. However, the collective wisdom of traders in this market can offer a different perspective than individual expert opinions. If analysts are consistently predicting certain themes or phrases, it would be reasonable to expect those outcomes to have higher probabilities reflected in this market. Discrepancies between the two could highlight areas where the market anticipates surprises or where analysts may be underestimating certain possibilities.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and its implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news, polls, and any other information traders believe is relevant to predicting what Donald Trump will say at the rally.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, following the completion of the rally in Florida. The outcome will be determined by a review of credible public reporting, including transcripts and video recordings of the event, to verify which statements were actually made by Donald Trump. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome(s) that occurred and 0% for those that did not, based on this verification. The exact wording of the statements will be the determining factor in resolution.

Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any official statements or previews released by Donald Trump’s campaign regarding the rally’s planned content would be impactful. Major news events occurring between now and the rally date, especially those related to the topics Trump frequently discusses, could shift probabilities. Unexpected changes to the rally’s schedule or location might also influence trading activity. Finally, shifts in public opinion, as measured by polls, could also affect how traders price the various outcomes in this market.