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What will Trump say during his podcast with The Second Lady?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his podcast with The Second Lady?

Volume:
$26,160

Biden

 - Kalshi

Biden - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 1:07 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Biden

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,117
N/A
N/A
$1,763
Settled
Yes
kalshi

250

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,820
N/A
N/A
$2,988
Settled
No
kalshi

Hottest

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,439
N/A
N/A
$2,203
Settled
No
kalshi

Autopen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,735
N/A
N/A
$1,457
Settled
No
kalshi

Democrat

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,712
N/A
N/A
$1,201
Settled
No
kalshi

Fake News

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,702
N/A
N/A
$1,296
Settled
No
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,637
N/A
N/A
$1,073
Settled
No
kalshi

Trillion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,621
N/A
N/A
$1,384
Settled
No
kalshi

Transgender

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,565
N/A
N/A
$1,067
Settled
No
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,394
N/A
N/A
$1,027
Settled
No
kalshi

Stock Market

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,107
N/A
N/A
$581
Settled
No
kalshi

Trump Account

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$925
N/A
N/A
$563
Settled
No
kalshi

Movie Star

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$885
N/A
N/A
$678
Settled
No
kalshi

Tax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
$543
Settled
No
kalshi

World Cup

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$791
N/A
N/A
$536
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$755
N/A
N/A
$492
Settled
No
kalshi

First Term

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$590
N/A
N/A
$491
Settled
No
kalshi

Rich

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$566
N/A
N/A
$377
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Description

Donald Trump will participate in a pre-recorded podcast interview with The Second Lady. The markets track whether Trump uses specific words or phrases during his official remarks in this podcast appearance.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on whether Donald Trump speaks specific words or phrases during his official capacity participation in the podcast. Resolution uses video as the primary source, with official transcripts as backup if video consensus cannot be reached. Each tracked word or phrase must be used exactly as specified—including plural or possessive forms—though grammatical and tense inflections are not required. The entire original broadcast content is examined for resolution. Trump must be present and speaking in an official capacity for the event to qualify; inaudible private conversations or unofficial statements do not qualify. If the event is cancelled or fails to qualify under these criteria, all word/phrase markets resolve to No and the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes. If the event is postponed but rescheduled within 14 calendar days with announcement by the end of the following day, markets remain open.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst commentary because traders stake real capital on outcomes, creating direct financial incentives for accuracy. While political analysts and media commentators may offer qualitative assessments of likely topics, this market quantifies those expectations into explicit probabilities. Comparing the current odds to public expert opinion can reveal where the market is pricing in surprise or consensus. Over time, prediction markets have demonstrated competitive accuracy against polls and punditry, particularly when liquidity and participation are robust.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to each potential outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform converts these orders into real-time probability estimates displayed as percentages. Traders profit by correctly predicting which statements or topics will be mentioned, with payouts determined by the final resolution. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how tightly prices cluster around fair value, and wider spreads may appear during low-activity periods.

This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the podcast airs and statements can be verified against credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether specific remarks or topics occur during the episode, as documented by reliable news sources, transcripts, or official recordings. Traders should monitor the event date closely, as any delays or cancellations may affect the settlement timeline. Once the podcast concludes and evidence is available, the platform will finalize payouts based on which outcomes materialized.

Market odds may shift sharply if either participant announces scheduling changes, cancellations, or postponements. Pre-podcast media coverage, prior statements by either party, or leaked details about planned topics could also trigger repricing. Breaking news unrelated to the podcast—such as political developments or policy announcements—may influence trader expectations about what will be discussed. Additionally, social media speculation and public interest in the event can drive volume and volatility. Close to the air date, final confirmations or last-minute guest additions could prompt rapid position adjustments.