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What will Trump say during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?

Volume:
$795,734

Ballroom

 - Kalshi

Ballroom - Kalshi

1W

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 10:35 PM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ballroom

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$23,265
N/A
N/A
$19,621
1w 1d 12h
Yes
kalshi

Melania

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,117
N/A
N/A
$12,227
1w 1d 12h
Yes
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$184,593
N/A
N/A
$174,029
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

China (5+ times)

View
0%
64%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$88,170
N/A
N/A
$71,034
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Taiwan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$66,625
N/A
N/A
$62,548
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Biden

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$61,690
N/A
N/A
$60,889
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Deal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46,966
N/A
N/A
$41,617
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Billion / Trillion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,289
N/A
N/A
$36,311
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,932
N/A
N/A
$26,421
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Economy / Economic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,492
N/A
N/A
$19,438
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,264
N/A
N/A
$18,895
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Iran / Iranian

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,623
N/A
N/A
$16,807
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Fake News

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,574
N/A
N/A
$14,141
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Tariff

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,413
N/A
N/A
$17,638
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,221
N/A
N/A
$16,050
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Peace in the Middle East

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,259
N/A
N/A
$12,558
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Invest / Invested / Investment

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,721
N/A
N/A
$10,757
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Hottest

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,882
N/A
N/A
$7,571
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Farm / Farmer / Farming

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,184
N/A
N/A
$7,031
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Russia / Russian

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,117
N/A
N/A
$7,320
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Rare Earth

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,971
N/A
N/A
$7,338
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Soybean

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,922
N/A
N/A
$5,956
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Manufacture / Manufacturing

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,881
N/A
N/A
$7,109
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

Stock Market

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,815
N/A
N/A
$6,837
1w 1d 12h
No
kalshi

United Nations / NATO

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,680
N/A
N/A
$7,263
1w 1d 12h
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention “China” at least five times during his evening remarks originally scheduled for September 24, 2026 in the East Room. Currently, the probability of this occurring on Kalshi is 100.0%. The resolution source for this market is based on a transcript of Donald Trump’s remarks, specifically counting instances of the word “China.” Traders should watch for any official announcements regarding the timing or content of the remarks scheduled for September 24, 2026, as any changes could impact the event’s resolution and the market will resolve by October 8, 2026.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Donald Trump includes any of 31 specified phrases or terms during his evening remarks scheduled for September 24, 2026, in the East Room. Each phrase represents a distinct category of potential discussion topics. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcast analysis, with official transcripts serving as a secondary verification method if video consensus cannot be reached. The exact word or its plural/possessive forms count toward resolution, while grammatical variations do not. Private or off-mic comments, archival footage, or pre-recorded segments not part of the live address are excluded. If the event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, closing all others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. All markets hinge solely on Trump’s official, on-camera remarks during the specified address.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump-Xi Jinping talks tracks the probabilities of various statements Donald Trump might make during his evening remarks. You can view the current odds for each potential outcome, along with a price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The current 24-hour volume is $795,036, and the total volume traded on this market is $795,734. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and see which statements are considered most likely by those trading on the platform.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are often qualitative or expressed as probabilities with varying degrees of confidence. However, this market provides a quantifiable, real-time assessment of expectations regarding the Trump-Xi Jinping talks. If analysts predict a high likelihood of certain topics being addressed, we would expect to see corresponding high probabilities reflected in the odds offered here. Discrepancies between the two could indicate areas where the market anticipates a different outcome than conventional wisdom suggests.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements by Donald Trump. The price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability of that statement being made. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's depth and volume provide insights into the level of conviction behind each potential outcome, and the current prices are a function of supply and demand among traders.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by a review of transcripts and video recordings of Donald Trump’s remarks during his evening discussion with Xi Jinping. The market will settle based on whether or not each listed statement was demonstrably made during the event. The final outcome will be based on publicly available records of the remarks.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 8, 2026. Any official statements from either the Trump or Xi Jinping administrations regarding the agenda or expected tone of the talks could shift probabilities. Unexpected geopolitical events or breaking news related to US-China relations would also likely cause movement. Furthermore, leaks or reports about the content of preparatory meetings, or even Trump’s recent public statements, could influence trader behavior and alter the odds in this market. Increased volume leading up to the event would also suggest heightened market attention.