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What will Trump say during his bilateral with the Taoiseach of Ireland?
kalshi

What will Trump say during his bilateral with the Taoiseach of Ireland?

Volume:
$346,535

Irish Open

 - Kalshi

Irish Open - Kalshi

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 4:50 PM EST

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Irish Open

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100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,223
N/A
N/A
$12,766
Settled
Yes
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Iran (3+ times)

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100%
47%
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100¢
N/A
$18,027
N/A
N/A
$12,577
Settled
Yes
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100%
25%
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100¢
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$17,901
N/A
N/A
$14,002
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Yes
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100%
34%
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100¢
N/A
$17,277
N/A
N/A
$13,852
Settled
Yes
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100%
62%
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100¢
N/A
$14,494
N/A
N/A
$11,439
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Yes
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Israel / Israeli

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82%
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100¢
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$14,399
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N/A
$10,855
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Yes
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100%
49%
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100¢
N/A
$14,307
N/A
N/A
$12,090
Settled
Yes
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Event does not qualify

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0%
2%
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100¢
N/A
$40,080
N/A
N/A
$28,875
Settled
No
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14%
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100¢
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$21,188
N/A
N/A
$19,820
Settled
No
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2%
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100¢
N/A
$18,515
N/A
N/A
$16,917
Settled
No
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NATO

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0%
46%
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100¢
N/A
$18,315
N/A
N/A
$15,633
Settled
No
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0%
21%
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100¢
N/A
$17,873
N/A
N/A
$15,691
Settled
No
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Ceasefire

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0%
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100¢
N/A
$11,643
N/A
N/A
$11,100
Settled
No
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Dublin

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0%
19%
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100¢
N/A
$11,368
N/A
N/A
$8,726
Settled
No
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Greenland

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0%
12%
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100¢
N/A
$9,502
N/A
N/A
$9,354
Settled
No
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Doonbeg

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0%
75%
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100¢
N/A
$9,448
N/A
N/A
$7,829
Settled
No
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Invest / Invested / Investment

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0%
37%
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100¢
N/A
$8,978
N/A
N/A
$5,427
Settled
No
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European Union / EU

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0%
39%
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100¢
N/A
$8,936
N/A
N/A
$7,217
Settled
No
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America First

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0%
10%
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100¢
N/A
$7,145
N/A
N/A
$6,941
Settled
No
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Biden

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0%
40%
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100¢
N/A
$6,928
N/A
N/A
$4,206
Settled
No
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China / Chinese

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0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,867
N/A
N/A
$4,976
Settled
No
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Windmill

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0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,505
N/A
N/A
$3,829
Settled
No
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Stock Market

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0%
21%
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100¢
N/A
$5,945
N/A
N/A
$3,922
Settled
No
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Fake News

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0%
28%
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100¢
N/A
$5,800
N/A
N/A
$3,470
Settled
No
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Ukraine

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0%
55%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,582
N/A
N/A
$3,721
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 27

Description

During a formal meeting between political leaders, specific phrases may be used that reflect policy positions, diplomatic tones, or responses to global issues. The selection of language can signal intent, alignment, or opposition on various matters.

Kalshi

The event involves monitoring a bilateral meeting for the exact utterance of predefined phrases by Donald Trump. Resolution depends on verified audio/video or official transcripts from the meeting on September 12, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific phrase; if Trump uses the exact phrase (including allowed variants like plurals or possessives) during the official portion of the meeting, that market resolves positively. Markets do not count if the phrase appears in unaired conversations, archived content, or non-official contexts. If the event is canceled, the “Event does not qualify” market resolves positively, and all others resolve negatively. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Resolution relies on consensus from live broadcasts or official transcripts when video review is inconclusive.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for this market tracks the current odds of various statements being made during the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and the Taoiseach of Ireland. You’ll find a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time, reflecting trader sentiment. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $306,287, and the total volume traded to date, which is $346,535. This provides a clear picture of market activity and how participants are positioning themselves ahead of the event.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective when contrasted with traditional analyst forecasts concerning the potential topics discussed during the Trump-Taoiseach meeting. While analysts may offer qualitative assessments of likely talking points, this market aggregates the collective judgment of numerous traders, expressed as probabilities. This allows for a quantifiable comparison, potentially revealing areas where market participants diverge from expert opinion. It’s important to remember that both approaches have limitations, and this market reflects expectations as of today, subject to change as new information emerges.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, these prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of different statements being made during the Trump-Taoiseach meeting. The higher the price, the greater the perceived probability of the outcome.

This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a comprehensive review of official transcripts and reliable news coverage of the bilateral meeting between Donald Trump and the Taoiseach of Ireland. The market will determine whether specific statements, as defined by the market contracts, were actually uttered during the meeting. The outcome will be determined by what is publicly documented, not by subjective interpretations or unverified claims.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Any pre-meeting statements made by either Donald Trump or the Taoiseach regarding potential discussion topics would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major geopolitical events or breaking news related to Ireland or US-Ireland relations could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, leaks or reports about the planned agenda for the meeting could introduce new information and drive price movement. Unexpected changes to the meeting schedule or attendee list could also be catalysts for activity in this market.