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24H VOL:

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will Trump post this week? (September 7 - September 13)
polymarket
kalshi

What will Trump post by October 1, 2026?

Volume:
$17,280

Above 0

 - Kalshi

Above 0 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 8, 8:20 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,246
N/A
N/A
$4,145
1d 18h 37m
Yes
polymarket

Investigation

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
10¢
N/A
$1,324
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Russia

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
12¢
N/A
$1,310
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

China

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Scam

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,159
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Crime

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$1,142
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Communist / Communism

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$415
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Uranium

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,458
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Israel

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,629
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Allah

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,417
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
89.8¢
N/A
$925
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This group forecasts whether Donald Trump will post specific terms or meet a posting threshold on his social media accounts (Truth Social and X) during the week of September 7-13, 2026. The markets assess the likelihood of Trump mentioning certain keywords or maintaining a minimum posting frequency.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge in their focus: Polymarket targets specific keyword posts on Truth Social, while Kalshi assesses overall posting frequency on X.Hero tip: Trade Polymarket markets based on the likelihood of specific terms appearing in Trump's Truth Social posts. Trade Kalshi based on the overall volume of Trump's X activity.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if Trump posts a specified term on Truth Social between September 7-13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Quoted/reposted content doesn't count. Strict rules apply to term variations and misspellings.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if Trump posts, quotes, or reposts on X more than 0 times in September 2026. No specific timeframe within the week is specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Kalshi

If @realDonaldTrump posts, quote posts, and reposts on X above 0 times (not including replies) from in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *put their money* on. This can be a more accurate indicator, as it incentivizes honest prediction. Polling data may show general sentiment, but this market attempts to forecast specific actions. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like response bias in polls or the unique information incorporated by traders in this market. It's important to consider both sources of information when assessing potential outcomes.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to differing opinions and price discovery. For example, Polymarket might attract more politically engaged traders, while Kalshi could have a broader range of participants. Differences in trading fees or market design can also influence prices. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform—currently $4,613—impacts price stability and responsiveness to new information. These variations are normal and reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any direct statements from Donald Trump regarding his social media usage, or changes to his posting schedule, would be influential. Major news events, particularly those involving legal proceedings or political campaigns, could also drive activity. Unexpected platform outages or policy changes on X or Truth Social could also cause shifts in the market. Finally, increased media attention surrounding Trump’s online activity, or a particularly controversial post, could lead to increased trading volume and price fluctuations in this market.