TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 27, 11:15 PM EST
Kalshi
During a television interview, a speaker may address various political and social issues. Specific phrases spoken by the speaker during the broadcast will determine the outcome of several conditions related to the discussion topics.
The event evaluates whether Troy Jackson utters any of several specified phrases during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or term; if Jackson says the exact phrase—or a plural/possessive form of it—while speaking in an official capacity during the live broadcast, that market resolves to Yes. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the live broadcast, with official or internal transcripts used as a secondary source if video consensus cannot be reached. Grammatical variations, unaired content, private on-camera remarks, and archival or unrelated recordings do not count. If the episode is canceled or fails to meet qualifying criteria, the “Event does not qualify” market resolves to Yes, and all others to No. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open. Consensus on phrase usage and broadcast authenticity is essential for resolution.
Currently, this market implies a very low probability for the referenced statement, contrasting sharply with many analyst forecasts that anticipate more conventional remarks from Troy Jackson. While analysts may emphasize historical patterns or policy positions, traders are pricing in a narrow set of possible verbal outcomes. The divergence suggests either market skepticism about unconventional statements or limited public discussion of such scenarios.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. Specifically, moderators will compare the broadcast transcript against the exact wording required for each possible outcome. No subjective interpretation is allowed — only direct matches count, ensuring an objective resolution process aligned with public records.
Media previews, social media hints from the show’s producers, or prior interviews by Troy Jackson addressing similar themes could shift expectations and move this market. Additionally, breaking political developments on the night of the broadcast may influence what topics are emphasized, altering traders’ assessments of likely statements. Any credible rumor linking Jackson to specific language will affect odds until resolution.