TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 2, 10:10 PM EST
Kalshi
During a live news broadcast, a speaker will be observed for specific keyword utterances. The focus is on whether particular phrases are spoken verbatim by the speaker in an official capacity during the designated segment.
The event centers on whether Troy Jackson utters any of several specified phrases during the MS NOW: The Briefing with Jen Psaki. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Susan / Collins", "ICE", "Afford / Affordable / Affordability"). If Jackson says the exact phrase—or any plural or possessive form of it—while speaking in an official capacity during the broadcast, that market resolves to Yes. The resolution relies primarily on live video footage; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Certain content is excluded from consideration, such as off-mic comments, archival footage, or content not part of the original stream. If the event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others to No. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open.
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. While analysts provide informed predictions based on their expertise, this market aggregates the views of many individuals, potentially capturing a wider range of perspectives and anticipating unexpected developments. Often, prediction markets can offer a more nuanced view, especially when dealing with complex events where subjective interpretation plays a significant role. It's important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and discrepancies can highlight areas of uncertainty.
This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by a review of the official transcript or video recording of The Briefing with Jen Psaki featuring Troy Jackson, to identify whether the statements outlined in the market’s possible outcomes were actually made. The resolution will be based on the content of his remarks during the broadcast, and any ambiguity will be resolved using generally accepted standards of interpretation.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any pre-briefing statements made by Troy Jackson or his team, or leaks regarding his planned talking points, could shift the odds. Major news events related to the topics likely to be discussed on The Briefing with Jen Psaki could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected political developments or controversies involving Jackson could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Finally, any changes in the anticipated format or focus of the interview itself could impact the probabilities reflected in this market.