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What will the witnesses say during the hearing on Supply Chain Dependency?
kalshi

What will the witnesses say during the hearing on Supply Chain Dependency?

Volume:
$29,543

Rare Earth / Mineral

 - Kalshi

Rare Earth / Mineral - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 15, 2026

Closed: Jul 15, 1:30 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Rare Earth / Mineral

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,244
N/A
N/A
$2,977
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Data Center

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,021
N/A
N/A
$2,072
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Manufacturing

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,992
N/A
N/A
$1,473
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Nuclear

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,534
N/A
N/A
$2,091
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Trump

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,458
N/A
N/A
$2,240
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tariff

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,111
N/A
N/A
$1,789
Settled
Yes
kalshi

China / Chinese

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,898
N/A
N/A
$1,474
Settled
Yes
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,583
N/A
N/A
$1,356
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Invest / Invested / Investment

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,567
N/A
N/A
$1,535
Settled
Yes
kalshi

National Security

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,554
N/A
N/A
$1,179
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Covid / Pandemic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,329
N/A
N/A
$1,089
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Iran

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,207
N/A
N/A
$1,055
Settled
No
kalshi

Taiwan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,111
N/A
N/A
$728
Settled
No
kalshi

Lithium

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,034
N/A
N/A
$748
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$774
N/A
N/A
$745
Settled
No
kalshi

Border

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$656
N/A
N/A
$493
Settled
No
kalshi

Biden

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$469
N/A
N/A
$317
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

A House Committee on Foreign Affairs hearing will examine supply chain dependency and strategies to strengthen U.S. supply chains through tools, capital, and partnerships. Witnesses testifying in official capacity during the live-streamed event will be monitored for specific terminology related to geopolitical, economic, and technological factors affecting supply chain resilience.

Kalshi

This event tracks whether any participating witness speaking in an official capacity mentions specific terms during the House Committee on Foreign Affairs hearing on supply chain dependency. Resolution is based on the live broadcast or stream, with video as the primary source and official transcripts as backup if consensus cannot be reached. The exact phrase or word must be used—including plural or possessive forms—though grammatical and tense inflections are not required. Plural nouns within proper nouns and noun phrases are included. Previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings from separate times or events do not count. The event must be open to the press and televised or streamed to qualify. If the hearing is cancelled or fails to qualify under these criteria, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes and all other markets resolve to No. If postponed with announcement by the end of the following calendar day to a date within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. Only statements made in an official capacity count; inaudible private conversations or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic do not qualify.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Supply Chain Dependency hearing witness testimony market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movements tied to what witnesses may testify during the scheduled hearing. The interface shows current trader sentiment, cumulative volume of $29,543, and 24-hour volume of $25,182, allowing you to monitor how market participants are positioning themselves ahead of the event. This dashboard helps you track shifts in conviction as new information emerges and the hearing date approaches.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and continuous price discovery rather than static reports. While analysts may issue periodic assessments of supply chain vulnerabilities and policy directions, this market aggregates live trader bets on specific witness testimony outcomes. The difference reveals where the market sees gaps in consensus or where new developments have shifted expectations faster than formal analysis can update.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-matching, where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different testimony outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders; higher prices indicate stronger conviction that a particular testimony theme will emerge. Bid-ask spreads tighten as volume increases, making it easier to enter or exit positions near fair value.

This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, once the hearing concludes and witness testimony becomes part of the public record. The outcome is determined by verified statements made during the hearing, confirmed against credible public sources including official transcripts and news coverage. Traders should monitor the hearing schedule and any postponements, as timing changes may affect when final resolution occurs.

Pre-hearing announcements about which witnesses will testify, their prepared statements, or leaked summaries can shift odds significantly. Media coverage, congressional statements, and industry reports on supply chain risks may reshape trader expectations about testimony focus areas. Unexpected scheduling changes, witness withdrawals, or related policy developments could also trigger sharp repricing. Close followers of supply chain policy and trade news will have an edge in anticipating these moves.