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What will the witnesses say during Senate AI Surveillance hearing?
kalshi

What will the witnesses say during Senate AI Surveillance hearing?

Volume:
$498,959

China / Chinese

 - Kalshi

China / Chinese - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 4, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 4:50 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

China / Chinese

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,878
N/A
N/A
$11,201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,870
N/A
N/A
$8,233
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Privacy

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,680
N/A
N/A
$5,925
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fraud

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,841
N/A
N/A
$4,221
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Track / Tracking

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,414
N/A
N/A
$4,057
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Social Media

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$175,681
N/A
N/A
$19,101
Settled
No
kalshi

Advertise / Advertisement

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$98,765
N/A
N/A
$8,267
Settled
No
kalshi

National Security

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$78,263
N/A
N/A
$19,084
Settled
No
kalshi

Cybersecurity

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,813
N/A
N/A
$12,794
Settled
No
kalshi

Algorithm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,821
N/A
N/A
$16,183
Settled
No
kalshi

Data Center

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,354
N/A
N/A
$13,269
Settled
No
kalshi

Hack / Hacked / Hacking

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,016
N/A
N/A
$8,608
Settled
No
kalshi

Trump (3+ times)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,120
N/A
N/A
$6,918
Settled
No
kalshi

Open Source

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,432
N/A
N/A
$3,444
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,012
N/A
N/A
$3,713
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks whether any participating witness will make specific statements during the Senate Committee on the Judiciary hearing titled Your Data, Their Profit: The Consumer Cost of AI Surveillance Pricing. On Kalshi, the current probability that a witness will say the specified statement is 95%. The outcome will be resolved based on the hearing proceedings and any qualifying events. The hearing is scheduled for August 19, 2026, and this is the key date to watch for resolution.

Kalshi

The event involves multiple markets resolved based on specific phrases spoken by participating witnesses during the Senate Committee on the Judiciary hearing titled "Your Data, Their Profit: The Consumer Cost of AI Surveillance Pricing." Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Trump," "Fraud," "Algorithm"). For a market to resolve as Yes, any participating witness must utter the exact phrase or its plural/possessive form in an official capacity during the live, televised, or streamed hearing. The live broadcast or stream is the primary source for resolution, with official transcripts used as a secondary source if video consensus cannot be reached. If the event is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or fails to meet qualification criteria (e.g., no official statements from witnesses), the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open. Resolution depends solely on the content of official witness statements, excluding off-mic or unofficial remarks.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Senate AI testimony market dashboard displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $481,189. This real-time view shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes in the Senate AI testimony market, helping users monitor sentiment and liquidity around this event.

Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While some experts predict cautious or diplomatic language from witnesses, traders are assigning a relatively higher probability to more confrontational or revealing testimony. The gap between these views can highlight areas where market participants diverge from traditional analysis, offering a unique perspective on market expectations.

This market resolves around Aug 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on official transcripts, verified media coverage, and public statements made during the Senate AI hearing, ensuring an objective assessment of what witnesses actually said.

Key signals include pre-hearing briefings, leaks from congressional staff, and early reactions from key senators or AI industry representatives. Major developments — such as a surprise witness addition or a shift in political tone — could cause rapid shifts in this market. Ongoing news coverage and social media buzz will also influence trader sentiment as the hearing approaches.