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What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?
kalshi

What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?

Volume:
$14,397

Between 10% and 19.99%

 - Kalshi

Between 10% and 19.99% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Between 10% and 19.99%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,360
N/A
N/A
$1,785
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Below 10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,196
N/A
N/A
$817
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 20% and 29.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,664
N/A
N/A
$1,504
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$377
N/A
N/A
$293
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 30% and 39.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
$205
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 40% and 49.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
$217
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 50% and 60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$185
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks what the US general import tariff rate on European Union goods will be on July 1, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the rate will fall between 10% and 19.99%—stands at 76.0%, while a rate below 10% is priced at 15.0%. The resolution source is the official US general import tariff rate on EU imports as of July 1, 2026. Watch for trade negotiations and policy announcements in the months leading up to July 1, 2026, as these will be key signals for where tariff rates ultimately settle.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the general import tariff rate actually in effect and being collected on July 1, 2026. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the European Union. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected qualify; announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not count. The rate refers to the general baseline rate, excluding product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect. The market resolves to the outcome corresponding to the tariff rate bracket: below 10%, 10-19.99%, 20-29.99%, 30-39.99%, 40-49.99%, 50-60%, or above 60%.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this event on Kalshi. It displays the current probability that the US tariff rate on EU imports will fall within the 10–19.99% range by July 1, 2026. The interface shows live price movements, historical odds trends, and 24-hour trading volume in USD. With total group volume of $14,397, this market reflects active trader interest in near-term US trade policy outcomes. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, allowing you to monitor shifting market sentiment on tariff expectations.

This market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, at which point the actual US tariff rate on EU imports will be measured and compared against the 10–19.99% threshold. Resolution depends on official tariff announcements and trade policy statements from US government authorities. The outcome is binary: either the rate falls within the specified band or it does not. Traders should monitor trade negotiations, executive orders, and congressional actions leading up to the resolution date, as these will determine whether the tariff outcome matches market expectations.

Key catalysts include trade negotiations between US and EU officials, statements from the administration on tariff policy, retaliatory measures from Europe, and economic data on trade flows. Congressional action or legislative proposals affecting tariff authority could shift expectations. Market sentiment may also react to geopolitical tensions, sectoral disputes (automotive, agriculture, technology), or changes in US political leadership priorities. Any official announcement of tariff rates or timelines will likely trigger sharp price moves. Traders should track press releases, earnings calls mentioning tariff exposure, and policy announcements through July 1, 2026.