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What will the US tariff rate on India be on July 1?
kalshi

What will the US tariff rate on India be on July 1?

Volume:
$21,721

Between 10% and 19.99%

 - Kalshi

Between 10% and 19.99% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Between 10% and 19.99%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,139
N/A
N/A
$3,854
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Below 10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,202
N/A
N/A
$2,614
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 20% and 29.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,844
N/A
N/A
$521
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 50% and 60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,672
N/A
N/A
$1,090
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 30% and 39.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,327
N/A
N/A
$1,005
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 40% and 49.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,313
N/A
N/A
$805
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$224
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether the US general import tariff rate applied to Indian goods will fall within the 10% to 19.99% range on July 1, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 74.0%, with a 25.0% probability assigned to tariffs remaining below 10%. The resolution will be determined by the official US tariff rate on Indian imports as of July 1, 2026. Watch for any major trade policy announcements or bilateral negotiations between the US and India in the months leading up to the July 1 resolution date.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the general import tariff rate actually in effect and being collected on July 1, 2026. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on India. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected qualify; announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not count. The rate refers to the general baseline rate, excluding product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect. The market resolves to the outcome corresponding to the tariff rate bracket: below 10%, 10-19.99%, 20-29.99%, 30-39.99%, 40-49.99%, 50-60%, or above 60%.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect trader expectations rather than traditional polling data. While polls measure public opinion on trade sentiment broadly, prediction markets aggregate financial incentives from participants betting real money on specific tariff thresholds. Markets often incorporate forward-looking signals—trade negotiations, policy announcements, and geopolitical developments—faster than surveys can. Comparing Kalshi odds to analyst forecasts or historical tariff patterns can help contextualize whether traders are pricing in optimistic or pessimistic scenarios relative to expert consensus.

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026. The outcome is determined by the official US tariff rate applied to imports from India at that time. Traders are betting on whether that rate will be below 10% or at 10% or higher. Resolution depends on actual tariff policy in effect on the resolution date, which may be shaped by trade negotiations, executive orders, congressional action, or bilateral agreements between the US and India.

Key catalysts include US-India trade negotiations, announcements of new tariff schedules, and changes in US trade policy toward South Asia. Executive actions or congressional tariff legislation could shift expectations significantly. Geopolitical developments, retaliatory measures, or shifts in the broader US trade stance toward major trading partners may also influence the market. Economic data on US-India bilateral trade flows and statements from US trade officials or Indian government representatives could trigger repricing as traders reassess the likelihood of tariff rates remaining below 10% by July 1, 2026.