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What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?
kalshi

What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

Volume:
$136,296

Between 10% and 19.99%

 - Kalshi

Between 10% and 19.99% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Between 10% and 19.99%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$39,343
N/A
N/A
$9,040
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Between 20% and 29.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51,216
N/A
N/A
$19,538
Settled
No
kalshi

Below 10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,253
N/A
N/A
$8,089
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 30% and 39.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,757
N/A
N/A
$4,222
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 40% and 49.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,113
N/A
N/A
$3,182
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 50% and 60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,695
N/A
N/A
$2,449
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,919
N/A
N/A
$1,514
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks the US general import tariff rate applied to Chinese goods as of July 1, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the rate will fall between 10% and 19.99%—stands at 58.0%, while the probability of rates below 10% is 21.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official US tariff rate on Chinese imports as of July 1, 2026. Watch for major trade policy announcements and negotiations between the US and China in the months leading up to the July 1 implementation date, as these will be critical signals for tariff rate expectations.

Kalshi

If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 10 to 19.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 20 to 29.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 30 to 39.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 40 to 49.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 50 to 60%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is above 60%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official US tariff rate on Chinese imports as published by the Office of the US Trade Representative or equivalent federal authority on that date. The outcome hinges on whether the rate falls within the specified range or outside it, based on executive orders, trade agreements, or legislative action taken before the deadline. Traders should monitor official government sources and trade policy announcements for clarity on the final rate.

Key catalysts include announcements of new trade negotiations or tariff modifications by the White House, congressional action on trade policy, and developments in US-China relations. Economic data on inflation and trade deficits may influence policy decisions. Geopolitical tensions, retaliatory tariff announcements from China, and statements from trade officials can shift market expectations rapidly. Earnings calls and corporate guidance on tariff impacts may also signal market participants' views on likely policy outcomes heading into July 1, 2026.