TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
What will the US tariff rate on Canada be on July 1?
kalshi

What will the US tariff rate on Canada be on July 1?

Volume:
$15,662

Between 10% and 19.99%

 - Kalshi

Between 10% and 19.99% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Between 10% and 19.99%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,683
N/A
N/A
$2,861
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Below 10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,669
N/A
N/A
$2,096
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 20% and 29.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,780
N/A
N/A
$926
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 50% and 60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,544
N/A
N/A
$1,105
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 40% and 49.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$804
N/A
N/A
$466
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$756
N/A
N/A
$609
Settled
No
kalshi

Between 30% and 39.99%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$425
N/A
N/A
$317
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks the US tariff rate applied to Canadian imports on a specific date. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the tariff rate will fall between 40% and 49.99%—stands at 94.8%. Resolution will be determined by the official general import tariff rate on imports from Canada into the United States as of July 1, 2026. Watch for any trade policy announcements or negotiations between US and Canadian officials leading up to the July 1, 2026 resolution date, as these will directly influence the final tariff level.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the general import tariff rate actually in effect and being collected on July 1, 2026. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on Canada. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected qualify; announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not count. The rate refers to the general baseline rate, excluding product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect. The market resolves to the outcome corresponding to the tariff rate bracket: below 10%, 10-19.99%, 20-29.99%, 30-39.99%, 40-49.99%, 50-60%, or above 60%.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official US tariff rate on Canadian imports as announced or confirmed by the relevant US government authority on that date. The outcome depends on trade negotiations, executive orders, congressional action, and any last-minute policy changes between now and resolution. Traders should monitor official government sources and trade policy announcements for signals that may affect the final tariff level.

Key catalysts include US-Canada trade negotiations, statements from the US Trade Representative or Commerce Department, congressional tariff votes, and economic data on bilateral trade flows. Geopolitical developments, retaliatory measures from Canada, and shifts in US domestic political priorities could all influence final tariff policy. Market prices may also react to leaked negotiation details, media reports on trade talks, or unexpected policy announcements. Traders should track official government communications and trade news closely for signals that narrow or widen the probability of the 10–19.99% tariff band.