TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 26, 11:02 AM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks whether specific keywords are mentioned during a live news broadcast. Each keyword represents a topic of potential interest, and the outcome depends on whether any reporter or host utters the exact word or phrase during the show.
The event evaluates multiple markets based on keyword mentions during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast. Each market has a primary rule stating that if any host or reporter says the specified keyword (including plural or possessive forms) during the broadcast, the market resolves to Yes. Video footage is the primary source for verification, with transcripts used as a secondary reference if needed. Only content within the original broadcast counts, excluding advertisements but including promotional segments. Postponements announced within one calendar day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open. All markets share these consistent resolution and verification procedures.
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds often reflect a more immediate, trader-driven perspective on likely reporter commentary. Analysts may weigh long-term trends or broader context, while traders on Kalshi focus on short-term expectations for the nightly broadcast. Differences can arise from real-time sentiment shifts or breaking news that aren’t yet incorporated into traditional forecasts, making this market an additional data point for tracking market sentiment.
This market resolves around Aug 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The final determination will be based on the actual broadcast content and reported commentary that night, checked against the market’s defined outcome categories.
News headlines, political developments, or major statements from public figures leading up to the broadcast can shift expectations and move this market. Trader reactions to pre-show polls, social media trends, or early indications of topic focus may also cause price swings. Any last-minute changes in reporting schedule or announced guest speakers could further influence odds as Aug 9, 2026 approaches.