TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 23, 7:10 PM EST
Kalshi
The broadcast will monitor whether specific keywords are mentioned by any host or reporter during the nightly news program. Each keyword triggers a distinct outcome based on its occurrence during the show.
All markets resolve based on whether any host or reporter utters specified exact phrases during the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir broadcast. Resolution relies primarily on video footage, with transcripts used as a secondary source if needed. Only content within the original broadcast counts, excluding advertisements but including promotional segments. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open. Plural or possessive forms of the keywords count toward resolution.
Odds from this market often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, reflecting real-time trader sentiment rather than expert predictions. While analysts may weigh long-term trends and historical data, traders in this market react instantly to breaking news, polls, and media narratives. As a result, you might see sharper shifts in probability here compared to more static forecasts, especially when new information emerges that impacts public perception of the night’s coverage.
This market resolves around Aug 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. Reporters’ remarks during the broadcast will be reviewed against the market’s defined criteria, and the result will be finalized shortly after the show concludes. Timing depends on how quickly the evening’s content is analyzed and confirmed, but you can expect resolution within hours of the broadcast.
Market movement will likely hinge on pre-broadcast speculation, analyst previews, and last-minute changes to reporting lineups. Any announcement about which correspondents will lead segments, exclusive interviews scheduled, or breaking news tied to the night’s themes can shift trader sentiment quickly. Social media buzz and news outlet teasers may also influence odds as the show approaches, especially if they hint at major story angles or surprises.