TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 21, 7:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This market monitors specific words and phrases mentioned by hosts and reporters during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast with David Muir. Resolution depends on whether targeted terms are spoken during the live broadcast or official stream, with different thresholds for different terms.
Resolution is based on mentions of specific terms by any host or reporter during the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir broadcast. The exact phrase or word must be used, including plural or possessive forms, though grammatical and tense inflections are not required. Different terms have different thresholds: Iran requires 3+ mentions, Trump requires 5+ mentions, while AI/Artificial Intelligence, Data Center, Tornado, Tariff, Paramount, Israel/Israeli, Ceasefire, Oil/Gas/Gasoline, ICE, Bertha, Acropolis, and Legionnaires each require at least one mention. Resolution uses the live broadcast or stream as the primary source; video consensus by Kalshi employees determines resolution, with official transcripts as backup. Promotional content counts but advertisements do not. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days with announcement by the following day, markets remain open. The entirety of the original broadcast content is used for resolution.
News about planned segments, guest announcements, or breaking stories ahead of the broadcast can shift this market. If a major developing story is scheduled for coverage, traders may bid up the probability of related phrasing. Conversely, if the show’s agenda changes or a competing news outlet breaks the story first, odds could fall. Overall volume of $198,176 provides a baseline for how responsive the short_topic is to real-world cues.