TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 11, 7:11 PM EST
Kalshi
The outcome depends on whether specific keywords are mentioned during a news broadcast. Each keyword represents a different topic that might be covered, and the broadcast's content will determine which, if any, keywords are spoken.
The event evaluates whether certain specified keywords are mentioned during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast hosted by David Muir. Each keyword has an associated market that resolves to 'Yes' if the keyword, or its plural/possessive form, is spoken by any host or reporter during the broadcast. Resolution primarily uses video footage of the broadcast; if video review fails to achieve consensus among Kalshi employees, official transcripts are used as a secondary source. Only content within the original broadcast counts, excluding advertisements but including promotional segments. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. The entire broadcast content is considered for each market's resolution.
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more nuanced or forward-looking view. Analysts may weigh long-term trends and official statements, while traders react quickly to breaking news, sentiment shifts, and media narratives. As a result, odds on this market can diverge from traditional forecasts, especially when unexpected events occur or public sentiment sways perception of likely coverage angles.
This market resolves around Aug 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The final determination will depend on analyzing the actual broadcast content against defined criteria, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several signals could influence this market before it resolves on Aug 26, 2026. Major news breaks, especially those likely to feature prominently on ABC World News Tonight, will shift expectations. Statements from the network about upcoming segments or special reports may also affect odds. Additionally, broader trends in public interest or major developments in the issues covered by the reporters can change trader sentiment. Keep an eye on pre-broadcast teasers and real-time news feeds for the most immediate impacts on pricing.