TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
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What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?

Volume:
$87,638

FAA

 - Kalshi

FAA - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 6, 2026

Closed: Aug 6, 7:05 PM EST

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View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

FAA

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,958
N/A
N/A
$11,301
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Powerball

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,617
N/A
N/A
$5,294
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fauci

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,878
N/A
N/A
$4,420
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Drone

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,316
N/A
N/A
$3,516
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chipotle / Qdoba

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,738
N/A
N/A
$3,384
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Iran (3+ times)

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,342
N/A
N/A
$3,421
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jalapenos

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,978
N/A
N/A
$3,174
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Trump (5+ times)

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,915
N/A
N/A
$3,088
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ukraine

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,607
N/A
N/A
$8,952
Settled
No
kalshi

McConnell

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,297
N/A
N/A
$5,691
Settled
No
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,204
N/A
N/A
$4,737
Settled
No
kalshi

Pentagon

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,303
N/A
N/A
$3,317
Settled
No
kalshi

SpaceX

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,111
N/A
N/A
$3,737
Settled
No
kalshi

ICE

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,003
N/A
N/A
$2,293
Settled
No
kalshi

Ceasefire

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,373
N/A
N/A
$2,220
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

The broadcast will be analyzed to determine whether specific keywords are mentioned by any host or reporter during the show. Each keyword has its own criteria for resolution, and the entire broadcast content will be considered for this purpose.

Kalshi

The event determines if specific phrases are mentioned during the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir broadcast. Each market has a primary rule stating that if a host or reporter says the specified phrase (or its plural/possessive form) during the broadcast, the market resolves to Yes. Video of the broadcast is the primary source for resolution; if consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. The live broadcast or stream is used, excluding additional content not part of the original broadcast. Promotional content counts, but advertisements do not. If the event is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. The entire content of the original broadcast is considered for resolution of each market.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the ABC World News Tonight reporter commentary market shows real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $87,556. It reflects trader sentiment about what reporters will say on the broadcast, updating continuously as new bets are placed. The interface lets you see how probabilities shift over time and compare current market momentum against $87,638 total volume. This focused view helps track expectations for tone, emphasis, and key themes in nightly news coverage.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds reflect a collective trader view that can diverge significantly. Where analysts may offer nuanced opinions, the market price captures a binary probability, often reacting faster to breaking news or shifting sentiment. Monitoring both can give a fuller picture of expectations around the night’s reporting.

This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution will depend on reviewing the actual broadcast to confirm whether the commentary matches the defined criteria for each possible outcome.

Between now and Aug 21, 2026, this market could shift based on breaking news, official statements, or emerging trends that influence what ABC reporters prioritize. High-impact developments in politics, international affairs, or domestic issues often dominate evening news segments, altering trader expectations. Media previews, anchor hints, or scheduled special reports may also shift probabilities. As Aug 21, 2026 approaches, real-time polling data, social media buzz, and wire-service headlines will likely drive rapid price changes, especially if key stories unfold unexpectedly.