TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 6, 7:05 PM EST
Kalshi
The broadcast will be analyzed to determine whether specific keywords are mentioned by any host or reporter during the show. Each keyword has its own criteria for resolution, and the entire broadcast content will be considered for this purpose.
The event determines if specific phrases are mentioned during the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir broadcast. Each market has a primary rule stating that if a host or reporter says the specified phrase (or its plural/possessive form) during the broadcast, the market resolves to Yes. Video of the broadcast is the primary source for resolution; if consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. The live broadcast or stream is used, excluding additional content not part of the original broadcast. Promotional content counts, but advertisements do not. If the event is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. The entire content of the original broadcast is considered for resolution of each market.
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds reflect a collective trader view that can diverge significantly. Where analysts may offer nuanced opinions, the market price captures a binary probability, often reacting faster to breaking news or shifting sentiment. Monitoring both can give a fuller picture of expectations around the night’s reporting.
This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution will depend on reviewing the actual broadcast to confirm whether the commentary matches the defined criteria for each possible outcome.
Between now and Aug 21, 2026, this market could shift based on breaking news, official statements, or emerging trends that influence what ABC reporters prioritize. High-impact developments in politics, international affairs, or domestic issues often dominate evening news segments, altering trader expectations. Media previews, anchor hints, or scheduled special reports may also shift probabilities. As Aug 21, 2026 approaches, real-time polling data, social media buzz, and wire-service headlines will likely drive rapid price changes, especially if key stories unfold unexpectedly.