TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 5, 7:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The broadcast examines whether specific topics or names are mentioned by any host or reporter during a nightly news program. Each topic or name has its own criteria for resolution based on verbal mentions during the show.
The event determines if any host or reporter mentions specified terms during the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir broadcast. Each market has a primary rule stating that if the exact phrase, word, or its plural/possessive form is used by any host or reporter, the market resolves to Yes. Video of the broadcast is the primary source for resolution; if consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Only content within the original broadcast counts, excluding advertisements but including promotional content. Postponements announced within one calendar day for rescheduling within 14 days keep markets open. All markets share these consistent resolution and validation procedures.
Compared to analyst forecasts, odds from this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced interpretation of media trends and public sentiment. Analysts may weigh long-term implications or broader context, while traders in this market focus on the specific likelihood of phrases, topics, or tones being featured tonight. Discrepancies can arise when rapid developments occur close to the broadcast, as market odds adjust quickly to new information and speculation. Monitoring both sources offers a fuller picture of anticipation surrounding the evening's coverage.
On Kalshi, this market uses trader submissions to set its current odds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The probability reflects collective expectations about reporter commentary on the ABC World News Tonight reporter commentary market, updated continuously as new information emerges. Volume of $168,891 shows overall interest, while recent 24-hour volume of $167,837 highlights short-term activity shifts. Traders adjust positions based on emerging news, public sentiment, and anticipated focus areas for the broadcast.
This market resolves around Aug 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the broadcast is verifiable from credible public sources. After the show airs, organizers will compare the actual reporter commentary against defined outcome categories. The result is finalized when the broadcast transcript or authoritative news coverage clearly aligns with one set of criteria, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of what was said and how it was framed during that evening's segment.
Several signals could influence this market before it resolves on Aug 20, 2026. Major news developments, especially those likely to feature prominently in nightly broadcasts, often shift expectations rapidly. Statements from political leaders, unexpected global events, or significant domestic stories gaining media traction can all affect trader sentiment. Additionally, patterns in recent coverage and analyst predictions about topic selection may guide market movements as the resolution date approaches.