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Politics
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27)
polymarket

What will NYT headlines say by September 27?

Volume:
$8,642

Iran

 - Polymarket

Iran - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 27, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 12:02 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Iran

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$1,435
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Vote / Voter / Votes

100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9¢
N/A
$1,141
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Trump

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$632
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tech

100%
44%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9¢
N/A
$627
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

World

100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9¢
N/A
$588
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

100%
86%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9¢
N/A
$350
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fear

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9¢
N/A
$280
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Space

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$825
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gulf

0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

NATO

0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$636
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Apple

0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$615
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ballroom

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$464
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Peace

0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between September 21 and September 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between September 21 and September 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the NYT front page market allows traders to predict the headlines that will appear on the New York Times front page between September 21 and September 27. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $841, and the total volume traded to date is $8,642. The dashboard displays the probabilities assigned to various headline possibilities, providing a forward-looking view of expectations. Traders are actively speculating on which individuals or events will dominate the news cycle this week.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated opinions, this market aggregates real-money bets, representing what people *believe* will actually happen. This can lead to divergences, particularly in politically sensitive events. For example, if polls show a close race, this market might assign a higher probability to one candidate if traders believe certain factors aren't fully captured in polling data. It's important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have limitations, and this market provides a unique data point for assessing potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different headlines appearing. The price of each share reflects the current market consensus, with higher prices indicating greater probability. This market’s pricing is solely determined by supply and demand on Polymarket, and is not influenced by any external factors or other prediction markets. Currently, the most probable outcome, according to traders on Polymarket, is that “Trump” will be mentioned in a headline this week.

This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the headlines appearing on the front page of the New York Times between September 21 and September 27 will be assessed to determine which predictions in this market were accurate. The market will settle based on a clear record of the actual headlines published during that timeframe. The outcome will be determined by objective verification of the New York Times front page, ensuring a transparent and reliable resolution process for this market.