TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Politics
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20)
polymarket

What will NYT front-page headlines say?

Volume:
$9,189

Space

 - Polymarket

Space - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 20, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 12:10 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Space

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$1,036
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Vote / Voter / Votes

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9¢
N/A
$991
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Trump

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Peace

100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9¢
N/A
$640
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

AI / Artificial Intelligence

100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$628
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Risk / Risked

100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Woman

100%
67%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$243
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

0%
96%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,051
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Laptop

0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$922
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Blockade

0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$594
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lawyer

0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Golf / Golfer

0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$494
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ireland / Irish

0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Putin

0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Poverty

0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between September 14 and September 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between September 14 and September 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the NYT front page market tracks the probabilities of various headlines appearing on the New York Times front page between September 14 and September 20. You’ll find a visual representation of the current odds for each possible outcome, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $9,111, and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,238. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential opportunities based on how others are forecasting the news cycle.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polls. While polls attempt to gauge public opinion, this market aggregates informed speculation about what the New York Times editors will deem newsworthy. It's common to see discrepancies, as the Times’ front page isn’t necessarily driven by overall public sentiment but by editorial judgment of significant events. This difference can be particularly pronounced during rapidly evolving news cycles, where the market may react faster to emerging information than polling averages.

This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the New York Times front pages for the week of September 14-20 are publicly available and verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on whether the headline described in each outcome actually appears on the front page during that timeframe. The determination will be based on a clear and unambiguous match between the predicted headline and the actual headline as published by the New York Times.

Several signals could significantly move this market. Major geopolitical events, unexpected political developments, and breaking news stories are all likely to influence traders’ perceptions of what will make the front page. A sudden shift in public discourse, a significant policy announcement, or a major economic indicator release could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Any event that dramatically alters the news landscape has the potential to reshape the probabilities reflected in this market before Sep 20, 2026.