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Politics
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (June 29 - July 5)
polymarket

What will NYT front-page headlines say from June 29 to July 5, 2026?

Volume:
$3,384

War

 - Polymarket

War - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 5, 7:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

War

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19¢
N/A
$630
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Trump

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$392
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Reserve

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

AI / Artificial Intelligence

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$339
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Iran

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ukraine

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.2¢
N/A
$165
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mexico

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Woman

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$495
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Oil / Gas

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$277
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

House

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hormuz

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pool

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Shocking

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Senate

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fear

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Liberation

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Blockade

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moon

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Drug

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 19

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between June 29 and July 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between June 29 and July 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the NYT front-page headlines market dashboard displays real-time odds for which topics will appear on the New York Times front page during a specific week. Traders buy and sell shares representing different headline outcomes, with prices reflecting the collective probability assigned to each potential story. The dashboard shows the leading outcomes, historical price movements, and trading activity as participants place bets on whether subjects like politics, economics, or breaking news will dominate the paper's top coverage. This live pricing mechanism aggregates market sentiment into a dynamic forecast of editorial priorities.

Prediction market odds and polling averages serve different purposes but can be compared as alternative forecasting tools. Polls measure stated public opinion at a snapshot in time, while this market reflects traders' real-money bets on actual headline placement. Market participants often incorporate polling data, expert analysis, and breaking news into their trading decisions, meaning odds may diverge from polls when traders expect editorial judgment to differ from public sentiment. Over time, markets have shown competitive accuracy against traditional surveys, particularly when outcomes are verifiable and traders face direct financial incentives.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares of each headline outcome, with the share price representing the implied probability of that story appearing on the front page. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders bet on a particular headline, its price rises; conversely, reduced demand lowers it. The market uses an automated market maker to ensure continuous liquidity and fair pricing. Traders profit by correctly predicting which stories will lead the Times, incentivizing them to incorporate news flow, editorial trends, and real-world developments into their positions.

This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, after the trading week concludes and the New York Times front pages have been published. The outcome is confirmed once the headlines are verifiable from credible public reporting and the Times' own archives. Traders' positions settle based on whether their predicted headlines actually appeared on the front page during the specified week. Resolution is straightforward and objective, tied directly to documented editorial decisions rather than subjective interpretation.

Breaking news, political developments, economic announcements, and major international events can all shift odds in this market. If a significant story emerges—such as legislative action, election news, or a crisis—traders will rapidly reprice their positions to reflect the likelihood of front-page coverage. Media commentary and expert predictions about editorial priorities also influence trading. Additionally, real-time tracking of which stories are already appearing in the Times can prompt traders to adjust bets on remaining days. The market remains dynamic throughout the week as new information arrives and editorial decisions become clearer.