TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 21, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between June 15 and June 21, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between June 15 and June 21, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg
Prediction market odds and polling averages measure different things. Polls capture stated preferences at a single moment, while this market aggregates real-money bets from traders who profit only if their forecast proves correct. Markets often react faster to breaking news and incorporate information that hasn't yet appeared in surveys. For headline prediction, market odds reflect trader confidence that specific stories will reach front-page prominence, whereas polls measure public opinion on topics. Both are useful signals, but markets typically embed stronger incentives for accuracy since participants have financial skin in the game.
On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each headline scenario is represented as a tradable contract, and the current price of each share reflects the collective probability estimate of all active traders. As new information emerges—breaking news, policy announcements, or developments in the covered stories—traders adjust their positions, causing prices to shift. The sum of all outcome prices equals one dollar, so higher-priced outcomes represent scenarios the market views as more likely to materialize by the resolution date.
This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, after the week concludes and the New York Times' front-page coverage for the specified period is finalized. The outcome is determined by verifying which headlines actually appeared on the Times' front page during June 15–21, 2026, against credible public reporting and the publication's own archives. Once the event is verifiable from authoritative sources, the market settles according to which outcome conditions were met, and traders' positions are paid out based on the confirmed result.
Major political developments, geopolitical crises, legislative votes, and unexpected announcements can all shift odds in this market. Breaking news that captures national attention typically drives traders to reprice outcomes reflecting heightened likelihood of front-page coverage. Economic data releases, court decisions, and campaign events may also influence which stories traders expect the Times to prioritize. Additionally, real-time news cycles and competing stories can cause rapid repricing as traders reassess which headlines will ultimately dominate the week's coverage. Monitoring news flow and political calendars helps traders anticipate which scenarios are gaining or losing probability.