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Politics
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 6 - July 12)
polymarket

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 6 - July 12)

Volume:
$7,598

Oil / Gas

 - Polymarket

Oil / Gas - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 7:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Oil / Gas

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Trump

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$487
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

China / Chinese

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$358
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Iran

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Drug

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.6¢
N/A
$342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

AI / Artificial Intelligence

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Russia / Russian

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

House

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19¢
N/A
$186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Woman

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19.9¢
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

War

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ukraine / Ukrainian

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Hormuz

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$700
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fear

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mexico

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$494
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Senate

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Shocking

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$418
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Korea / Korean

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$365
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reserve

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$361
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Border

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$335
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moon

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$303
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pool

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rigged

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Liberation

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$194
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between July 6 and July 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between July 6 and July 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the NYT front-page headlines market dashboard displays real-time odds for what stories will appear on the New York Times' front page during a specific week. Traders buy and sell shares tied to different headline outcomes, with prices reflecting the collective probability assigned to each potential story. The dashboard shows current odds, historical price movements, and trading volume, allowing participants to monitor how market sentiment shifts as news develops. This live pricing mechanism aggregates trader conviction about which topics will dominate the Times' editorial judgment during the forecast period.

Prediction market odds and polling averages serve different purposes and often diverge meaningfully. Polls measure public opinion at a snapshot in time, while markets reflect traders' expectations about future events—in this case, editorial decisions by the New York Times. Markets incorporate real-time information and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes, whereas polls capture sentiment without direct cost to respondents. For headline prediction, this market may outpace traditional surveys because traders must forecast not just what happens, but what the Times will choose to emphasize. The dynamic pricing here adapts faster to breaking news than static polling cycles.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker (AMM) system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each potential headline outcome is represented as a separate contract, and the price of each share reflects its implied probability. As traders accumulate positions, the cost to buy additional shares of that outcome rises, and selling pressure lowers it. This continuous repricing ensures the market stays responsive to new information. The sum of all outcome probabilities across the market should approximate 100 percent, though rounding and liquidity dynamics may create small deviations.

This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once the New York Times publishes its front pages for the week of July 6–12. The outcome is determined by comparing actual headlines that appeared on the Times' front page against the specific outcomes traders wagered on. Resolution is verified against credible public reporting and the Times' own published archives. Traders who correctly predicted which stories would lead the paper receive payouts proportional to their positions, while incorrect predictions result in losses. The exact resolution process follows Polymarket's standard procedures for event confirmation.

Major breaking news—political developments, economic data, international crises, or natural disasters—can rapidly shift odds as traders reassess what the Times will prioritize. Statements from key political figures, legislative votes, or court decisions may increase the likelihood of certain headlines. Market-moving events include Federal Reserve announcements, election-related news, or geopolitical escalations. Trader positioning and sentiment also matter; as money flows into specific outcomes, prices adjust. Additionally, the Times' own editorial patterns and recent front-page history provide clues about what stories the newsroom considers most important, influencing how participants allocate capital closer to week's end.