TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Politics
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 27 - August 2)
polymarket

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 27 - August 2)

Volume:
$29,616

Japan

 - Polymarket

Japan - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 29, 12:40 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Japan

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$3,792
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Deal

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,656
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Trump

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,229
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fear

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$993
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

China / Chinese

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$820
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Iran

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$711
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mexico

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
4.9¢
N/A
$521
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Drug

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$514
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Oil / Gas

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Israel

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$393
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

AI / Artificial Intelligence

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$261
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Woman

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,444
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Peace

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,844
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reserve

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rigged

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Liberation

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,869
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ukraine / Ukrainian

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Border

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$788
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moon

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 19

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between July 27 and August 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between July 27 and August 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the NYT front-page headlines market tracks real-time odds, price fluctuations, and 24-hour volume of $3,965. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing political developments expected to dominate the newspaper’s front page this week. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity as headlines emerge, giving users a live view of where money is flowing in this political prediction market.

Compared to public polling averages, this market often assigns higher probability to dramatic or unexpected political events that polls may underweight. While polls reflect stated voter preferences, traders in this market price in real-time reactions to breaking news, scandals, or policy announcements that could push major stories onto the front page. That difference can create gaps between polling percentages and market-implied chances, especially when sensational developments arise outside typical survey frames.

This market resolves around Aug 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement checks the actual front-page headlines published by the New York Times for the specified dates, and any headline that appears there determines the market’s result. No subjective interpretation is needed — the physical or digital front page serves as the definitive record.

Major political announcements, controversy surrounding candidates, economic data releases, or international incidents are the most common drivers that shift this market. A surprise press conference, scandal revelation, or high-profile policy change can rapidly reshape traders’ expectations about what will capture the newspaper’s lead story. Additionally, competitive earnings or geopolitical tensions that dominate cable news and social media often flow into front-page decisions, moving odds in the final days before Aug 2, 2026.