TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

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Politics
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 20 - July 26)
polymarket

What will the NYT front-page headlines say by July 26, 2026?

Volume:
$13,296

AI / Artificial Intelligence

 - Polymarket

AI / Artificial Intelligence - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 27, 2026

Closed: Jul 23, 12:20 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9¢
N/A
$797
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Woman

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
2.1¢
N/A
$648
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Trump

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$563
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Win / Winner

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$526
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Korea / Korean

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9.9¢
N/A
$471
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fear

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.4¢
N/A
$422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Risk

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9.9¢
N/A
$316
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ukraine / Ukrainian

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$311
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Russia / Russian

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.3¢
N/A
$255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Iran

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Border

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Strait

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

War

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$99
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

State

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
10¢
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

China / Chinese

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,213
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rigged

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,199
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Liberation

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,072
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hormuz

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$861
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reserve

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$808
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Shocking

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$699
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Senate

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$683
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Car / Vehicle

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$595
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

House

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$588
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fatal

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$569
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 24

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between July 20 and July 26, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between July 20 and July 26, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the NYT front-page headlines market dashboard displays real-time odds and trading activity for what will appear on the New York Times front page during a specific week. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different headline predictions, with prices reflecting the collective assessment of likelihood. The dashboard shows the leading outcomes, historical price movements, and current volume of $13,296 across all related outcomes. This market captures market sentiment about major news stories expected to dominate the week of July 20–26, making it a dynamic indicator of where traders believe attention will focus.

Prediction markets and polling serve different purposes. Polls measure current public opinion on specific questions at a single moment, while this market aggregates trader expectations about real-world outcomes—in this case, which headlines will actually appear. Markets often incorporate information faster than polls update, since traders have financial incentive to price in breaking news and emerging stories. The odds here reflect not just sentiment but traders' willingness to stake capital on their forecasts, which can reveal conviction levels that surveys may not capture. Both tools offer valuable but distinct perspectives on what the public and informed traders expect.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into real-time probabilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders purchase shares representing different headline outcomes; the price of each share reflects its implied probability, with all outcomes summing to 100 percent. As traders buy or sell, the price adjusts automatically based on supply and demand. Higher trading volume typically narrows spreads and increases price accuracy. The top outcome currently reflects strong trader conviction about which story will dominate the week.

This market resolves around Jul 26, 2026, once the week concludes and the New York Times front-page headlines for July 20–26 are finalized. The outcome is confirmed by comparing actual headlines published during that period against the specific predictions traders wagered on. Resolution is verified against credible public reporting and the official NYT archive. Traders who correctly predicted which stories would lead the front page receive payouts proportional to their position size, while incorrect predictions result in losses. The market closes once the event window ends and outcomes become verifiable.

Major breaking news—political developments, economic data, international crises, or natural disasters—can rapidly shift odds as traders reassess which stories will dominate headlines. Policy announcements, election results, or significant corporate news may also trigger repricing. Social media trends and early reporting can signal which narratives are gaining traction. As the week progresses and actual headlines begin publishing, traders gain real-time information about which outcomes are materializing, causing sharp price movements. Late-week surprises or underreported stories can create volatility. Traders monitor news cycles closely to adjust positions before the market resolves.