TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Politics
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16)
polymarket

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week?

Volume:
$4,140

Hot / Heat

 - Polymarket

Hot / Heat - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

Closed: Aug 11, 12:25 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Hot / Heat

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$485
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Japan

100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Earthquake / Quake

100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$209
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Race

100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$143
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Woman

100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Blockade

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rigged

0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$485
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Eclipse / Sun

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$370
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spain

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gold

0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Star

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Risk

0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$176
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Peace

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between August 10 and August 16, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between August 10 and August 16, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the NYT front-page headlines market on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and price movements for this week’s potential headlines. It shows how traders value different political stories that might appear on the New York Times front page. You can view the current top outcome, historical price trends, and 24-hour volume of $1,722 to see where market interest is concentrated. This single-venue view reflects how participants on Polymarket are positioning themselves ahead of the Aug 16, 2026 resolution.

Unlike traditional polling averages, this market incorporates real-time trader sentiment and betting action, offering a dynamic take on likely front-page developments. While polls might highlight broad public opinion trends, this market reacts instantly to breaking news, insider whispers, and geopolitical shifts. The current odds reflect a fast-moving consensus that can diverge significantly from slower-polling data, especially on high-stakes political weeks. Traders often see patterns earlier than poll aggregates can capture.

This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will match the actual front-page headlines published by the New York Times during the specified week. Traders will see the market settle based on publicly observable facts, not internal assessments or speculation, once the newspaper’s print and digital editions are confirmed.

Key signals include major political announcements, surprise policy shifts, high-profile speeches, or developing international crises that draw media focus. Events such as congressional votes, executive orders, or notable public controversies often drive rapid market adjustments. Traders will also watch insider commentary and media speculation closely, as these can preview which stories the NYT editorial team might prioritize for front-page coverage in the coming days.